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What recession? Market is dropping 1-2 times faster than it did in 1928. The entire economy is about to shut down for two months - the world over. Treasury Secr

What recession? Market is dropping 1-2 times faster than it did in 1928. The entire economy is about to shut down for two months - the world over. Treasury Secretary predicting up to 20% unemployment, and I bet they were being conservative to prevent even more of a panic, because in the last 20s we also had 20% unemployment. This isn't a recession. It's a depression. The US is about to experience true hardship for the first time in decades.

davidw 7y ago
I'm not real optimistic about things, but... maybe things will come back to life quickly if we get a handle on the actual problem?
- bob33212 7y ago
  Yes, once we have a decent treatment/mitigation/herd immunity for the virus we will be able to pick things right back up where they were. The only difference will be that the value of the dollar is going to get cut by 50%. Expect massive inflation as we bailout everyone.
  - MaxBarraclough 7y ago
    > the value of the dollar is going to get cut by 50% Against what? Aren't all currencies going through a similar hardship?
  - mdorazio 7y ago
    That's not how it works. Inflation and dollar value vs. other currencies is only loosely tied to bailout-type measures. See, for example, the mostly non-existent inflation following the financial crash bailouts last time. Also see current strengthening of the dollar vs. other currencies because it's a safehaven.
  - jandrewrogers 7y ago
    It is significantly more complicated than this. Have you looked at foreign exchange rates lately? Other currencies are getting crushed relative to the USD because of COVID-19.
- alkonaut 7y ago
  A cheap and effective treatment that means that it's suddenly not very deadly, or at least not likely to put a huge strain on the healthcare system would be what could turn it around.
  - davidw 7y ago
    A miracle would be great, but I'm not counting on that in the short term.
usaar333 7y ago
> Market is dropping 1-2 times faster than it did in 1928. That doesn't mean anything in itself. The market is much more efficient and communication is faster now. > Treasury Secretary predicting up to 20% unemployment, If no government actions were taken. > The entire economy is about to shut down for two months - the world over. The "economy" isn't shutting down, only certain sectors (travel being the most notable). Obviously this has ripple effects on everything. Fun fact: The Chinese stock market only fell about 10% during the lockdown. You should expect a U-shape recovery, just with some permanent loss (lack of cash flow, expensive containment measures that must be maintained, etc.)
- twomoretime 7y ago
  >That doesn't mean anything in itself. The market is much more efficient and communication is faster now >If no government actions were taken Points taken, but as for the rest, I think you're underestimating the scale and ripple effects of shutting down an economy built around consumption. And your optimism also seems to assume that the market was healthy before all of this kicked off. That's where our perspectives differ. Airline industry, auto industry, tourism, consumer goods and especially electronics, what proportion of the economy do those sectors alone represent? >Fun fact: The Chinese stock market only fell about 10% during the lockdown. Considering that China has only tightened it's red curtain and the propaganda machine is at full steam, I'm not so sure we can trust any positive news out of China. Especially considering the regulated semi-private nature of the Chinese Economy. Face is everything to an authoritarian government - without the appearance of strength and/or competence, opressed peoples revolt. This is why authoritarian states tend to have work camps.
- xbmcuser 7y ago
  Looking at how China locked down it's cities and how most western politicians reacted including your president. You should not assume how the effect in China and the rest of the world will be same. This is how China controlled the spread https://youtu.be/YfsdJGj3-jM https://youtu.be/YfsdJGj3-jM
LargeWu 7y ago
Recession and depression have very specific definitions, and they don't involve the stock market. It's based on GDP.

davidw 7y ago

I'm not real optimistic about things, but... maybe things will come back to life quickly if we get a handle on the actual problem?

bob33212 7y ago
Yes, once we have a decent treatment/mitigation/herd immunity for the virus we will be able to pick things right back up where they were. The only difference will be that the value of the dollar is going to get cut by 50%. Expect massive inflation as we bailout everyone.
- MaxBarraclough 7y ago
  > the value of the dollar is going to get cut by 50% Against what? Aren't all currencies going through a similar hardship?
- mdorazio 7y ago
  That's not how it works. Inflation and dollar value vs. other currencies is only loosely tied to bailout-type measures. See, for example, the mostly non-existent inflation following the financial crash bailouts last time. Also see current strengthening of the dollar vs. other currencies because it's a safehaven.
- jandrewrogers 7y ago
  It is significantly more complicated than this. Have you looked at foreign exchange rates lately? Other currencies are getting crushed relative to the USD because of COVID-19.
alkonaut 7y ago
A cheap and effective treatment that means that it's suddenly not very deadly, or at least not likely to put a huge strain on the healthcare system would be what could turn it around.
- davidw 7y ago
  A miracle would be great, but I'm not counting on that in the short term.

usaar333 7y ago

> Market is dropping 1-2 times faster than it did in 1928. That doesn't mean anything in itself. The market is much more efficient and communication is faster now. > Treasury Secretary predicting up to 20% unemployment, If no government actions were taken. > The entire economy is about to shut down for two months - the world over. The "economy" isn't shutting down, only certain sectors (travel being the most notable). Obviously this has ripple effects on everything. Fun fact: The Chinese stock market only fell about 10% during the lockdown. You should expect a U-shape recovery, just with some permanent loss (lack of cash flow, expensive containment measures that must be maintained, etc.)

twomoretime 7y ago
>That doesn't mean anything in itself. The market is much more efficient and communication is faster now >If no government actions were taken Points taken, but as for the rest, I think you're underestimating the scale and ripple effects of shutting down an economy built around consumption. And your optimism also seems to assume that the market was healthy before all of this kicked off. That's where our perspectives differ. Airline industry, auto industry, tourism, consumer goods and especially electronics, what proportion of the economy do those sectors alone represent? >Fun fact: The Chinese stock market only fell about 10% during the lockdown. Considering that China has only tightened it's red curtain and the propaganda machine is at full steam, I'm not so sure we can trust any positive news out of China. Especially considering the regulated semi-private nature of the Chinese Economy. Face is everything to an authoritarian government - without the appearance of strength and/or competence, opressed peoples revolt. This is why authoritarian states tend to have work camps.
xbmcuser 7y ago
Looking at how China locked down it's cities and how most western politicians reacted including your president. You should not assume how the effect in China and the rest of the world will be same. This is how China controlled the spread https://youtu.be/YfsdJGj3-jM https://youtu.be/YfsdJGj3-jM

LargeWu 7y ago

Recession and depression have very specific definitions, and they don't involve the stock market. It's based on GDP.