> This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. The two best data points we have would be South Korea and th

> This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. The two best data points we have would be South Korea and the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Both of these groups have high rates of testing and both have had enough time that we can know how the most of the cases played out, and in both cases we see the death rate at about 1%. This doesn't take into account possibly different age group distributions. The cruise ship probably has less children and less 80+ people than on typical distributions. Additionally both the Diamond Princess and South Korea cases assume ready access to medical treatment. If the medical system is overwhelmed we will see much higher CFR due to critical cases not receiving adequate care.