3 ms·

It seems like you're pushing back on the CFR, possibly driven by trying to pessimize the need for action. In the small Italian city of Nembro in Bergamo, 0.6%

by 3JPLW 7y ago

It seems like you're pushing back on the CFR, possibly driven by trying to pessimize the need for action. In the small Italian city of Nembro in Bergamo, 0.6% of their entire population has died in the last 12 days. That's 70 people in a small town of 11,000 — typically there are fewer than 70 deaths every six months. Now we're certainly _overestimating_ the denominator and still getting a number that's larger than the flu. While the numerator is also an overestimate (because it includes deaths not related to COVID-19), their healthcare system is stretched beyond capacity due to the virus leading to difficulties treating all illnesses and traumas. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/coronavirus-obituaries-bergamo-italy/2020/03/16/6c342f02-66c7-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/coronavirus-obit...

guscost 7y ago
You should include demographic information, since it is relevant to your argument: [Nembro] Age Distribution (E 2019) 0-9 years 1,018 10-19 years 1,191 20-29 years 1,179 30-39 years 1,192 40-49 years 1,640 50-59 years 1,850 60-69 years 1,465 70-79 years 1,181 80+ years 810 > In 2010, there were 119,551 people residing in Bergamo (in which the greater area has about 500 000 inhabitants), located in the province of Bergamo, Lombardia, of whom 46.6% were male and 53.4% were female. Minors (children ages 18 and younger) totalled 16.79 percent of the population compared to pensioners who number 23.61 percent. This compares with the Italian average of 17.88 percent (minors) and 20.29 percent (pensioners). https://www.citypopulation.de/en/italy/lombardia/bergamo/016144__nembro/ https://www.citypopulation.de/en/italy/lombardia/bergamo/016... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bergamo#Demographics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bergamo#Demographics
- 3JPLW 7y ago
  Cool, thanks for the data. Looks like their population is 30% over 60, whereas the US (for example) is 20%. Even if we assume _every_ death is someone over 60 (it's not), that'd adjust the percentage to 0.4% in a generic US town. Note that Florida is similarly 28% over 60.
  - guscost 7y ago
    If you compare the 80+ group (which has a much higher CFR), this town has closer to three times the percentage of the US population. On top of that, this is in a region of Italy where the healthcare capacity has been completely overwhelmed. That's going to be devastating for the prognosis of an older person who needs a ventilator.
    - 3JPLW 7y ago
      Very true. Here's some more comprehensive numbers from Italian media: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&u=https://www.affaritaliani.it/cronache/coronavirus-il-dramma-del-comune-di-nembro-c-e-un-morto-in-ogni-famiglia-659780.html&prev=search https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&u=https:/... Since Feb 25 there have been 91 deaths with positive COVID-19 diagnoses. In total there have been 330 deaths. I'd be very curious what the age breakdowns are. Anyhow, this was just a small example that shows that we're already seeing significant mortality relative to the _total population_ and not just by confirmed positive cases.

by 3JPLW 7y ago

guscost 7y ago

You should include demographic information, since it is relevant to your argument: [Nembro] Age Distribution (E 2019) 0-9 years 1,018 10-19 years 1,191 20-29 years 1,179 30-39 years 1,192 40-49 years 1,640 50-59 years 1,850 60-69 years 1,465 70-79 years 1,181 80+ years 810 > In 2010, there were 119,551 people residing in Bergamo (in which the greater area has about 500 000 inhabitants), located in the province of Bergamo, Lombardia, of whom 46.6% were male and 53.4% were female. Minors (children ages 18 and younger) totalled 16.79 percent of the population compared to pensioners who number 23.61 percent. This compares with the Italian average of 17.88 percent (minors) and 20.29 percent (pensioners). https://www.citypopulation.de/en/italy/lombardia/bergamo/016144__nembro/ https://www.citypopulation.de/en/italy/lombardia/bergamo/016... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bergamo#Demographics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bergamo#Demographics

3JPLW 7y ago
Cool, thanks for the data. Looks like their population is 30% over 60, whereas the US (for example) is 20%. Even if we assume _every_ death is someone over 60 (it's not), that'd adjust the percentage to 0.4% in a generic US town. Note that Florida is similarly 28% over 60.
- guscost 7y ago
  If you compare the 80+ group (which has a much higher CFR), this town has closer to three times the percentage of the US population. On top of that, this is in a region of Italy where the healthcare capacity has been completely overwhelmed. That's going to be devastating for the prognosis of an older person who needs a ventilator.
  - 3JPLW 7y ago
    Very true. Here's some more comprehensive numbers from Italian media: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&u=https://www.affaritaliani.it/cronache/coronavirus-il-dramma-del-comune-di-nembro-c-e-un-morto-in-ogni-famiglia-659780.html&prev=search https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&u=https:/... Since Feb 25 there have been 91 deaths with positive COVID-19 diagnoses. In total there have been 330 deaths. I'd be very curious what the age breakdowns are. Anyhow, this was just a small example that shows that we're already seeing significant mortality relative to the _total population_ and not just by confirmed positive cases.