In re: "Black Swans" the articles says: > But over the past decade, we have had a number of black swan events. which links to this: https://sloanreview.mit.ed

In re: "Black Swans" the articles says: > But over the past decade, we have had a number of black swan events. which links to this: https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-science-of-managing-black-swans/ https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-science-of-managing-... > To a risk manager, “black swan” phenomena are highly unlikely events that have massive impacts on a business or society on the rare occasions they occur. But the whole point of the "Black Swans" is that they are both unpredictable and we forget about or rationalize them away after the fact. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory Pandemics aren't unpredictable. This virus isn't a black swan it's just a large white swan. If we manage to cope with it well enough to keep things more-or-less stable and then forget about it then it's a black swan. - - - - We could and should know better. You watch Star Trek and they're always beaming down to random planets in their shirt-sleeves, no space suits. Meanwhile, in the real world, we are expanding our "attack surface" (there are more of these viruses out there, as we invade more wild areas we will encounter more viruses) while weakening our systemic defenses (cheap international travel, extended supply chains).