4 ms·
> even looking at an exponential growth rate, Do you know how exponential growth works? The exponent matters. A lot. There's a big difference between 1% growth
by notacoward 7y ago
> even looking at an exponential growth rate,
Do you know how exponential growth works? The exponent matters. A lot. There's a big difference between 1% growth per week and 10% growth every day. According to the actual math and models being used by epidemiologists, over four million people could need ICU-level care for COVID-19.
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200317.457910/full/ https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200317.45791...
Since we don't have anywhere near that many ICU beds, and there's an even more acute shortage of ventilators, a high percentage of those people wouldn't get the care they need and would therefore die - eclipsing even heart disease in the list you cite. So no, measures to reduce that exponent are not unreasonable. We need to reduce both the number of contacts people have per day and the likelihood that each contact will lead to infection. Please study some math beyond what you've only partially remembered from grade school.
> You also have control over your own susceptibility and spread of something like the flu or the common cold
Those are far less likely to reach a level where they require hospitalization, let alone ICU-level care. Yes, they're preventable (not 100% BTW), but there's no danger of affecting others by increasing strain on scarce hospital resources, so it's not a very constructive comparison.
- ykevinator 7y agoIt's amazing how many epidemiologist don't understand the difference between exponential and polynomial growth.