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Totally agree. That’s the number I’ve been watching most to get a sense of how many total are infected for different regions e.g. 1 death today = 50-200 people
by rubidium 7y ago
Totally agree. That’s the number I’ve been watching most to get a sense of how many total are infected for different regions e.g. 1 death today = 50-200 people were infected 2 weeks ago.
- bob33212 7y agoThen once you have 2 weeks of death data you can't get the transmission rate. Finally you could go to Seattle and sample 50k people to see how many were infected with a serology test to further refine the 1% assumption
- tunesmith 7y agoApplied to US data... 21 deaths today. 14% daily increase, doubling time of 5.2 days (2 week lag; hopefully social distancing has lengthened it since then). Assuming 1% fatality, that would mean 2100 "actual" cases two weeks ago. Assume no social distancing and doubling time of 5.2 days, or say it doubled three times in two weeks and you get 16,800 cases today. But we've already got 11k confirmed cases today, and I can't believe our confirmed count has already caught up that much. I dunno, maybe that's an indication that the fatality rate is lower than 1%. Or that dying takes longer than 14 days.