5 ms·
I can only speak from 'our' perspective here in Sweden so don't shoot if you don't agree but... in general I think people under-react rather than over-react whe
by Yetanfou 7y ago
I can only speak from 'our' perspective here in Sweden so don't shoot if you don't agree but... in general I think people under-react rather than over-react when it comes to handling the oncoming epidemic. The main problem is that the disease is already causing an overload on the health care system in parts of the country while the epidemic has just gotten started. If left unchecked it will peak in about 2.5 months when close to half a million people will likely be in need of hospitalisation with about 150.000 of them in need of critical care. About 40.000 people will die given a mortality of 0.7% (as measured in Korea) and a 70% fraction of the population being infected.
There are 520 IC places in the whole of Sweden.
Even if these numbers are overstated by a factor 10 - which is possible although the SEIR-model gives even higher numbers (800.000 hospitalised, 200.000 in need of critical care) - it is clear that those in need of critical care will most likely not get the help they need leading to an increased mortality.
For a single individual the disease does not seem to be as large a threat as it is being made out to be by some. For a society unused to see people die from infectious disease it stands to be devastating. Either society will have to accept that infectious disease can and will kill people when it is allowed free reign or we'll have to do our best to make sure the limit the amount of suffering due to loss of life, loss of quality of life, loss of income, employment, economic potential and other factors as much as possible.
What is needed now is a comprehensive testing effort to find out how far the infection has spread over the country. If it turns out a sizeable part of the population already carries antibodies against SARS-CoV2 it will be clear that the disease is not as much of a threat as it seems to be. Comprehensive testing will also allow for the early isolation of infected people and will help in limiting the load on the health care system.