6 ms·

No. Very simply, an extreme response is required here. The most recent UCL study demonstrates that given everything we know about the virus, extreme social dist

by entee 7y ago

No. Very simply, an extreme response is required here. The most recent UCL study demonstrates that given everything we know about the virus, extreme social distancing may not even be enough [1]. Worse, if we are successful, it will look like we overreacted because the nature of exponential spread is that if you act when you’re on the steep part of the curve you’re too late. If you act beforehand, you never get to the steep part. The test, while developed quickly, isn’t likely showing lots of false positives. The nature of these tests is that they’re not too hard to quality control. You know what they’re looking for (a particular set of RNA sequences) so positive and negative controls are easy to make. In fact that’s why the CDC test was rejected initially, there was a clear issue with the controls. For hospital beds, people don’t just randomly end up in the ICU. Italian ICU capacity is completely overwhelmed, if not this virus, why? That said, hoarding groceries is counterproductive and an overreaction. Otherwise, absolutely not, this is a terrible virus, we need to be careful. [1] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana... EDIT: Typo

conformist 7y ago
*ICL study, there's a bit of friendly rivalry between ICL and UCL ;) Otherwise, great comment!
- entee 7y ago
  Sorry! Can't fix now :( Thanks for correction! (Worst part: my cousin went to ICL)
thu2111 7y ago
Italian ICU capacity is completely overwhelmed, if not this virus, why? Being a truly evil Devil's advocate for a moment: 1. Because it's not actually overwhelmed. See this discussion from 2 days ago about a Reuters report where the head of ICU for Lombardy says nobody has been turned away due to lack of beds: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22605144 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22605144 2. Because ICU demand expands to meet available capacity as nobody wants to switch off life support and modern medicine always gives one more intervention to try. Thus doctors are always describing their hospitals as overwhelmed the moment demand increases even a little bit. Hospitals being described as overloaded, patients being treated in tents and doctors describing their wards as strained/at the edge of disaster/etc is not something unique to COVID-19. Here is the same thing happening in 2018 in the USA: https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/ https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie... Here are some quotes. Remember, all this was Jan 2018 but it sounds like it could have been written yesterday. The 2017-2018 influenza epidemic is sending people to hospitals and urgent-care centers in every state, and medical centers are responding with extraordinary measures "We are pretty much at capacity" Tallia says his hospital is “managing, but just barely,” at keeping up with the increased number of sick patients in the last three weeks. The hospital’s urgent-care centers have also been inundated, and its outpatient clinics have no appointments available The story is similar in Alabama, which declared a state of emergency last week in response In California, which has been particularly hard hit by this season’s flu, several hospitals have set up large “surge tents” outside their emergency departments to accommodate and treat flu patients Nurses are being “pulled from all floors to care for them," ... "Many nurses have also become sick, however, so the staff is also short-handed." "More and more patients are needing mechanical ventilation due to respiratory failure from the flu and other rampant upper respiratory infections" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5279685/California-hospitals-looks-like-flu-war-zone.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5279685/Californi... Flu drives hospitals into 'war zone' conditions: Tents on the street in California, 'state of emergency' in Alabama, and Boston is using GATORADE to plug shortage of IV drips Remember - all that was in 2018. The world didn't end. The exact same terms and language are being used now. Now, I'm not saying this case is the same as flu of 2018 in the USA. Clearly, there are critical differences and this one is much more serious. But how much more serious is being muddled by the fact that our data is all useless and so people fall back on testimony from doctors, which sounds extremely dramatic, but there's a history of describing tough flu seasons in exactly the same way. In a way it makes sense. ICU capacity is expensive. It'd be weird to have lots sitting idle all the time, unused, whilst other people were being switched off life support.
- jackjackk0 7y ago
  Thank your god you don't live in Bergamo (Italy) [1] right now and stop writing about things you don't know, you are just disrespectful to those who know better who won't write you here because they are either busy 14h/day saving lives or just trying to survive. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/video-tour-coronavirus-icu-ward-bergamo-italy-worst-apocalyptic-2020-3?IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/video-tour-coronavirus-icu-w...
  - thu2111 7y ago
    I live a few hours from Bergamo. I'm writing these things anyway. Please don't try and shut people down who are posting factual information by claiming it's "disrespectful" - disrespectful to whom? The medics I quoted? The Business Insider article you link to is saying exactly the same things as the articles I cite about what happened in the USA in 2018: makeshift wards, extraordinary measures, more and more patients needing ventilation. That's what it looks like when a lot of patients turn up sick with pneumonia at once. Videos are dramatic but not enough to understand what's going on by themselves. You realise that, I hope?
    - jackjackk0 7y ago
      You confirm you are completely oblivious to what is happening around you, good for you. Even visual proof is not enough. Enjoy your "hospitals are not at full capacity" fairy tale, maybe you are lucky enough to not need to find an hospital. If you knew at least one person in the first line you would know better. But please do keep reading your comorting fairy tales if that helps you.
      - thu2111 7y ago
        You're reacting emotionally when what the world needs is cold rationalism. As of Wednesday afternoon this week, Italian hospitals were not yet at the point of turning people away: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/italys-death-rate-reaches-record-high-hospitals-in-lombardy-struggle.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/italys-death-rate-reaches-re... Medical facilities in Lombardy will “soon” be unable to help new coronavirus cases, regional Gov. Attilio Fontana said Wednesday, as he urged everyone to stay at home. That was based on a quick search of English-language material. Perhaps there's a more recent update from the last 48 hours where things have changed - I'd love more recent info. But at the moment I'm seeing a lot of people who clearly believe hospitals are turning people away en-masse already, and yet I keep finding news stories where it's being officially denied by the relevant health authorities. Are they all oblivious, living in a fairy tale too? If so, isn't that a shocking scandal that needs to be talked about right now?
AtlasBarfed 7y ago
I will say the US healthcare system and its lack of hospital beds per population is making our lives worse. South Korea apparently has 12 beds per 1000 people, and, wouldn't you know it, the US is terrible, and even worse when considering our expense. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_... We all will suffer drastic economic effects from the vampires that have made our healthcare system a worldwide embarrassment. We are LUCKY that this is a 1-4% kill rate disease. If this were a REAL deadly pandemic like smallpox or black death, we'd be totally screwed, and even more screwed due to our healthcare system actively discouraging people from using it, trusting it, or listening to it.

by entee 7y ago

conformist 7y ago

*ICL study, there's a bit of friendly rivalry between ICL and UCL ;) Otherwise, great comment!

entee 7y ago
Sorry! Can't fix now :( Thanks for correction! (Worst part: my cousin went to ICL)

thu2111 7y ago

Italian ICU capacity is completely overwhelmed, if not this virus, why? Being a truly evil Devil's advocate for a moment: 1. Because it's not actually overwhelmed. See this discussion from 2 days ago about a Reuters report where the head of ICU for Lombardy says nobody has been turned away due to lack of beds: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22605144 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22605144 2. Because ICU demand expands to meet available capacity as nobody wants to switch off life support and modern medicine always gives one more intervention to try. Thus doctors are always describing their hospitals as overwhelmed the moment demand increases even a little bit. Hospitals being described as overloaded, patients being treated in tents and doctors describing their wards as strained/at the edge of disaster/etc is not something unique to COVID-19. Here is the same thing happening in 2018 in the USA: https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/ https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie... Here are some quotes. Remember, all this was Jan 2018 but it sounds like it could have been written yesterday. The 2017-2018 influenza epidemic is sending people to hospitals and urgent-care centers in every state, and medical centers are responding with extraordinary measures "We are pretty much at capacity" Tallia says his hospital is “managing, but just barely,” at keeping up with the increased number of sick patients in the last three weeks. The hospital’s urgent-care centers have also been inundated, and its outpatient clinics have no appointments available The story is similar in Alabama, which declared a state of emergency last week in response In California, which has been particularly hard hit by this season’s flu, several hospitals have set up large “surge tents” outside their emergency departments to accommodate and treat flu patients Nurses are being “pulled from all floors to care for them," ... "Many nurses have also become sick, however, so the staff is also short-handed." "More and more patients are needing mechanical ventilation due to respiratory failure from the flu and other rampant upper respiratory infections" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5279685/California-hospitals-looks-like-flu-war-zone.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5279685/Californi... Flu drives hospitals into 'war zone' conditions: Tents on the street in California, 'state of emergency' in Alabama, and Boston is using GATORADE to plug shortage of IV drips Remember - all that was in 2018. The world didn't end. The exact same terms and language are being used now. Now, I'm not saying this case is the same as flu of 2018 in the USA. Clearly, there are critical differences and this one is much more serious. But how much more serious is being muddled by the fact that our data is all useless and so people fall back on testimony from doctors, which sounds extremely dramatic, but there's a history of describing tough flu seasons in exactly the same way. In a way it makes sense. ICU capacity is expensive. It'd be weird to have lots sitting idle all the time, unused, whilst other people were being switched off life support.

jackjackk0 7y ago
Thank your god you don't live in Bergamo (Italy) [1] right now and stop writing about things you don't know, you are just disrespectful to those who know better who won't write you here because they are either busy 14h/day saving lives or just trying to survive. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/video-tour-coronavirus-icu-ward-bergamo-italy-worst-apocalyptic-2020-3?IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/video-tour-coronavirus-icu-w...
- thu2111 7y ago
  I live a few hours from Bergamo. I'm writing these things anyway. Please don't try and shut people down who are posting factual information by claiming it's "disrespectful" - disrespectful to whom? The medics I quoted? The Business Insider article you link to is saying exactly the same things as the articles I cite about what happened in the USA in 2018: makeshift wards, extraordinary measures, more and more patients needing ventilation. That's what it looks like when a lot of patients turn up sick with pneumonia at once. Videos are dramatic but not enough to understand what's going on by themselves. You realise that, I hope?
  - jackjackk0 7y ago
    You confirm you are completely oblivious to what is happening around you, good for you. Even visual proof is not enough. Enjoy your "hospitals are not at full capacity" fairy tale, maybe you are lucky enough to not need to find an hospital. If you knew at least one person in the first line you would know better. But please do keep reading your comorting fairy tales if that helps you.
    - thu2111 7y ago
      You're reacting emotionally when what the world needs is cold rationalism. As of Wednesday afternoon this week, Italian hospitals were not yet at the point of turning people away: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/italys-death-rate-reaches-record-high-hospitals-in-lombardy-struggle.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/italys-death-rate-reaches-re... Medical facilities in Lombardy will “soon” be unable to help new coronavirus cases, regional Gov. Attilio Fontana said Wednesday, as he urged everyone to stay at home. That was based on a quick search of English-language material. Perhaps there's a more recent update from the last 48 hours where things have changed - I'd love more recent info. But at the moment I'm seeing a lot of people who clearly believe hospitals are turning people away en-masse already, and yet I keep finding news stories where it's being officially denied by the relevant health authorities. Are they all oblivious, living in a fairy tale too? If so, isn't that a shocking scandal that needs to be talked about right now?

AtlasBarfed 7y ago

I will say the US healthcare system and its lack of hospital beds per population is making our lives worse. South Korea apparently has 12 beds per 1000 people, and, wouldn't you know it, the US is terrible, and even worse when considering our expense. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_... We all will suffer drastic economic effects from the vampires that have made our healthcare system a worldwide embarrassment. We are LUCKY that this is a 1-4% kill rate disease. If this were a REAL deadly pandemic like smallpox or black death, we'd be totally screwed, and even more screwed due to our healthcare system actively discouraging people from using it, trusting it, or listening to it.