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No. In the US alone more people may die from covid19 than from any other single event ever. Global deaths may exceed world war 2. For young healthy people, yes,

No. In the US alone more people may die from covid19 than from any other single event ever. Global deaths may exceed world war 2. For young healthy people, yes, things will be fine, but we are looking at millions dying well before their time. In Italy death rates are 5x beyond normal. They are not even able to bury all the bodies at this time the mortality rate is so high. Angela Merkel, who rarely gives speeches, has said this is the greatest challenge to Germany since the second world war. And Germany has been through a lot. Look, even Donald Trump, who has every economic and political incentive to downplay this is calling this a catastrophe. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/angela-merkel-nails-coronavirus-speech-unlike-trump.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/angela-merkel-nails-... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/generation-has-died-italian-province-struggles-bury-coronavirus-dead https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/generation-has...

salmon30salmon 7y ago
The Imperial College study was flawed due to bias input. The sampling used painted a worse than possible scenario due to the bias in tested cases fed in. We don't have enough tests, even in RoK, to know how infection rate of the population as a whole. We only know the rate of those with self-reported symptoms, and at that only the severe for most cases.
chrismeller 7y ago
Umm, no? According to the CDC, 83,500 people died of diabetes in 2017 [1], and that's not even remotely the top cause (heart disease at almost 650k). According to the last stats I saw, 8 people have died in the US of corona so far... [2] [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm [2]: https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/m/en/ https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/m/en/ Edit: I'm not going to bother responding to all the edits, though at the moment they haven't proven anything different. Edit 2: It was pointed out that the source I used for the "8 deaths" was incorrect - it was 8 new deaths, there have been 97 total according to the CDC. My bad, but I think my point still stands regardless.
- deleted 7y ago
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- pwinnski 7y ago
  Odd how you switch from the reputable CDC to whatever "liveupdate.world" is. There have been 97[0] reported COVID-19 deaths in the US as of yesterday. That said, "all causes ever" is ridiculous. Even worst-cases scenarios[1] put COVID-19 as the potential third cause of death in the US. UPDATE: I think you weren't reading your own source well. There are +10 "new deaths" since an unspecified time, but that site is reporting 160 deaths overall.[2] I don't know how that's sourced, though, so I would be leery of trusting it, even though it makes a stronger case than the CDC. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/case... [1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/16/upshot/coronavirus-best-worst-death-toll-scenario.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/16/upshot/corona... [2] https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/p/en/official-corona-virus-totals-in-usa/?t=1584630062 https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/p/en/official-corona-vi...
  - dmarchand90 7y ago
    Yes sorry, I was copying the terminology from the article poorly. It's going to be higher than historical events, but not other medical causes. E.g. 4x deaths of the civil war.
  - chrismeller 7y ago
    liveupdate.world was posted on HN a couple of days ago. The numbers of cases have been accurate according to the other sources I've checked, but I admit I have not really evaluated the number of deaths because the country I live in right now hasn't had any. That is my mistake, thanks for pointing it out. That said, comparing actual numbers against a "worst-case scenario" is also apples and oranges. 97 people in a country of somewhere between 325 and 330 million people... if my admittedly poor math skills are correct, that is about 0.00002%. Yes, that's in roughly a month, but even exponentially it _could_ be worse than cancer, but there is no evidence to suggest it _will_ be thus far.
- 7y ago

salmon30salmon 7y ago

The Imperial College study was flawed due to bias input. The sampling used painted a worse than possible scenario due to the bias in tested cases fed in. We don't have enough tests, even in RoK, to know how infection rate of the population as a whole. We only know the rate of those with self-reported symptoms, and at that only the severe for most cases.

chrismeller 7y ago

Umm, no? According to the CDC, 83,500 people died of diabetes in 2017 [1], and that's not even remotely the top cause (heart disease at almost 650k). According to the last stats I saw, 8 people have died in the US of corona so far... [2] [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm [2]: https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/m/en/ https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/m/en/ Edit: I'm not going to bother responding to all the edits, though at the moment they haven't proven anything different. Edit 2: It was pointed out that the source I used for the "8 deaths" was incorrect - it was 8 new deaths, there have been 97 total according to the CDC. My bad, but I think my point still stands regardless.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
pwinnski 7y ago
Odd how you switch from the reputable CDC to whatever "liveupdate.world" is. There have been 97[0] reported COVID-19 deaths in the US as of yesterday. That said, "all causes ever" is ridiculous. Even worst-cases scenarios[1] put COVID-19 as the potential third cause of death in the US. UPDATE: I think you weren't reading your own source well. There are +10 "new deaths" since an unspecified time, but that site is reporting 160 deaths overall.[2] I don't know how that's sourced, though, so I would be leery of trusting it, even though it makes a stronger case than the CDC. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/case... [1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/16/upshot/coronavirus-best-worst-death-toll-scenario.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/16/upshot/corona... [2] https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/p/en/official-corona-virus-totals-in-usa/?t=1584630062 https://liveupdate.world/coronavirus/p/en/official-corona-vi...
- dmarchand90 7y ago
  Yes sorry, I was copying the terminology from the article poorly. It's going to be higher than historical events, but not other medical causes. E.g. 4x deaths of the civil war.
- chrismeller 7y ago
  liveupdate.world was posted on HN a couple of days ago. The numbers of cases have been accurate according to the other sources I've checked, but I admit I have not really evaluated the number of deaths because the country I live in right now hasn't had any. That is my mistake, thanks for pointing it out. That said, comparing actual numbers against a "worst-case scenario" is also apples and oranges. 97 people in a country of somewhere between 325 and 330 million people... if my admittedly poor math skills are correct, that is about 0.00002%. Yes, that's in roughly a month, but even exponentially it _could_ be worse than cancer, but there is no evidence to suggest it _will_ be thus far.
7y ago