5 ms·
I mean, some people are overreacting about some aspects of this, but the main thing is: - the fatality rate for covid is high. People make a valid point about
by astrophysician 7y ago
I mean, some people are overreacting about some aspects of this, but the main thing is:
- the fatality rate for covid is high. People make a valid point about how we don’t know the “actual” (unbiased) fatality rate, that may be hard to estimate, but at this point it’s more or less irrelevant —- we already know for a fact that it is high enough to overwhelm the healthcare system, as is already happening elsewhere. We’re not going to wake up one day and say “oh oops, the fatality rate is only 0.03%, oopsies sorry everyone go back to work”, it’s already past that point.
- because it will overwhelm our healthcare system, countries have no choice but to impose extreme measures to slow the spread, which will have huge economic effects depending on how long we can stand doing this. Ideally until there is a solution to the problem of inundated hospitals, whatever that looks like, and however long that takes.
- people hoarding resources or thinking this is the apocalypse are likely overreacting. People are panicking, which will slowly stop once people adjust to their new temporary reality, but whether people are “overreacting” has a different answer for every person.
- the impact on the economy is going to be severe, even with trillions of dollars in stimulus. The restaurant/entertainment industries are trillions of dollars in size, so this will hurt (it is already hurting) and it will put many people out of business.
So....it depends on exactly what you mean by overreacting. If people who are really ok are filling hospital beds, then once things get bad they will be sidelined in favor of serious cases. So for now I don’t see how that’s an issue but maybe it is?
In summary: panic is usually the wrong response to anything but this is incredibly serious...
- enchiridion 7y agoI'm not so sure about the out of business part of it. Temporary closing sure. They may have to take on additional debt to get started again, but there will be huge demand once restrictions are lifted.
- astrophysician 7y agoYea agree about a demand surge when this is over, but I don’t think most businesses will be able to weather this well. Margins are usually pretty tight. A business already struggling will simply close rather than take out more debt amounting to the cost of months of revenue that they will have to figure out how to repay (even when rates are very low). It will hurt and it will hurt big time if this goes on for longer. So politicians are faced with an impossible choice: tank the economy with social restrictions or don’t and millions of people die and the hospitals are overrun, which will likely have its own economic impact. That’s a ramble, but basically I sincerely hope your optimism is correct here, but I am much more pessimistic. I think we will get through this but at a huge economic cost.