3 ms·

I've found this thread useful in trying to answer this very question: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html https://threadreaderapp.com/t

• salmon30salmon 7y ago
  Incomplete data was fed into that model, as even in the Asian countries, only people showing extreme symptoms were tested. We have no data regarding the spread across the entire population.
• mondoshawan 7y ago
  That study is actually quite myopic, and focuses entirely on non-pharmapseutical treatment. It specifucally ignores most of the findings we have now: - 25-50% infected show no symptoms - herd immunity is ignored - Non-vaccine treatments are ignored - Reinfection is assumed, yet we have no data yet because there havent been any reinfections yet - It flatly assumes full quarantine is possible at home Definitely read the study and weigh your own data and conclusions with these points in mind rather than using his summary. This guy just got scared from it, but he's just a social science historian, not a doctor or microbiologist.
  • thu2111 7y ago
    The Imperial 'study' has other problems too. It assumes NHS capacity is absolutely constant and won't change at all, not even in an entire year. Yet apparently the NHS already doubled the number of available beds. What kind of study assumes capacity won't change at all in response to the sort of actions now being seen?