4 ms·

We need to just accept 2-4 million sick and elderly Americans dying. That outcome cannot be any worse than complete economic and social destruction that we seem

We need to just accept 2-4 million sick and elderly Americans dying. That outcome cannot be any worse than complete economic and social destruction that we seem to be pursuing in the name of virus suppression. Edit: I am specifically referring to the Imperial College report which outlines this scenario. Here is the original report: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... And here is a summary: https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696 https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

baq 7y ago
i'd love to see your calculations for that. unless you're talking about a temporary uptick in grave digger openings.
- AntonStratiev 7y ago
  The Imperial College report: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... Full suppression will require total shutdown for ~18 months. Mitigation, specifically requiring the sick and elderly to self-isolate and quarantinging COIVD-19 cases and their families, will result in 2-4 million dead (depending on its effectiveness), with the situation over in 3 months.
  - Mediterraneo10 7y ago
    Your post is grim, but I suspect that some countries will make the same calculation as time goes by. Here in Poland, we saw one of the first lockdowns for a European country, but the lockdown stopped at closing the border, schools, large restaurants and malls. Other shops remain open (I just went hat shopping today, for instance), people are traveling between the city and their country homes, and the feeling seems to be now that if you want to avoid infection, it is your own responsibility to stay home instead of expecting the economy to shut down.
CodeCube 7y ago
No ... this is a glimpse of the kind of changes the world needs to make anyways to stave off destructive climate change. The world needs to learn to be together virtually ... that means remote work for knowledge workers, better local communities that let residents walk to get everything they need (groceries, restaurants, bars, etc), less flying to far flung parts of the world (at great carbon cost). We can still greatly expand our reach beyond what many people do today through technology, without having bankers and executives commuting by plane every week.
posnet 7y ago
I am guessing you are not in the 2-4 million people who get to die then?
- AntonStratiev 7y ago
  No but I am in the tens of millions of Americans who will lose their job and go bankrupt if things continue this way. I could sell my possessions and move back with my elderly parents (ironically exposing them even more to the virus). Suicide is another option if the situation does not improve. At least during a regular economic downturn, you can go to a bar, drink out your sorrows, join a construction crew. Now, during Coronavirus panic, which of these options even remain? It is completely unprecedented to have everything shut. Those who will perish already have existing health conditions, and would have died at some point anyway: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho...
  - durge 7y ago
    You have a 100% chance of dying someday.
  - Sholmesy 7y ago
    We all will have died at some point anyway.
  - dannyr 7y ago
    So if this virus kills people in the same demographic as you instead and you are one of the people dying, you're ok if the government just let you die?
  - aguyfromnb 7y ago
    The country has been in lockdown for, what, one week? And already you're talking about letting people die so you can keep your job, or committing suicide? Show a little fortitude, we will get through this.
  - gnulinux 7y ago
ardit33 7y ago
Are you a Russian bot?
- dmix 7y ago
  > Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email us and we'll look at the data. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - rhino369 7y ago
    Not really possible to further degrade discussion that begins with "let 4 million people die"
    - __s 7y ago
      I think responding to that idea with "that idea sounds Russian" does further degrade discussion, as it goes from someone considering cost of life to raising conspiracies that Russia/Asia are trying to leverage this situation to raise the death toll in Western society, which can degrade further into falling deeper down the hole into conspiracies about the virus being intentionally created https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life is a thing, so long as society makes a decision which doesn't absolutely minimize death rates. Why don't we ban cars as a pandemic? There's a clear argument to defend saving 2-3 million Americans (even more world wide) that doesn't involve accusing Russia
- inferiorhuman 7y ago
  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-disinformation/russia-deploying-coronavirus-disinformation-to-sow-panic-in-west-eu-document-says-idUSKBN21518F https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-disinf...
joshgel 7y ago
That’s not the only problem. Say you aren’t high risk, great! But do you really want to live in a world without a functioning health care system. Because that is what you are promoting. When hospitals get overwhelmed, even minor issues can become catastrophic. In a car crash? Need some surgical repair? Too bad, we’re not open for business because we’re trying to keep critically ill patients alive and need the gowns and equipment for healthcare workers.
- AntonStratiev 7y ago
  That would only be the case for 3 months, after which those who were most vulnerable to the virus would have perished. 2.8m Americans die annually, basically we are just seeing 1-2 years of deaths brought forward into a 3 month window. It will be harrowing to triage those patients but it can be managed. I would prefer that situation to living through a great depression. Healthcare is irrelevant without a job or any income whatsoever, with huge sections of the economy closed and extensive restrictions on what individuals can and can't do. I have parents in their late 60s who are looking at their entire retirement portfolio evaporating. I have a terminally ill sister and aunt who are faced with spending their final weeks/months in lockdown, with people unable to visit them or attend their funerals. They are struggling to access regular supplies due to hoarding.
  - adamsea 7y ago
    Go talk to your friends who have elderly parents or grandparents and see what they think about that. Go have the courage of your convictions and go talk to some elderly people and explain that to them, see what they think about that. I know what I think about that.
  - dannyr 7y ago
    The thing is these millions of elderly people dying are someone else's relatives. It could even be yours. Will you be ok with that?
    - pinkfoot 7y ago
lm28469 7y ago
Yes, let's put money before people to prove how great our system is! What if the only sick thing in the first place was our economy ? At least all BS start-ups with no useful products/service living on investors money will start to drop like flies, and if you ask me I'm feeling much better about that than having to burry my parents or grandparents.
ddlatham 7y ago
It's not just the elderly who will die if the system is overwhelmed. Nearly 40% of those that are sick enough to require hospital care are between the ages of 20 and 64[1]. If everyone is getting it at the same time and there's not enough health care to go around, those 20-64 year olds will be dying too. I'm guessing you yourself may fall into that age cohort. [1]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-...
- ukabwlsbeux 7y ago
  A quick google suggests that 84% of the population is under 65, so this isn’t especially surprising. Every other data source I’ve seen has used age 60 as the benchmark which is probably skewing how we think of these numbers in the US context. % of ICU patients in ages 20-44 is just 2-4%. % of ICU patients under 60 is going to be, eyeballing it, maybe 25-30% with most of concentrated in people in their 50s. If you’re young and would be hospitalized (not ICU), I think it’s pretty unlikely you would die from this even if just left at home. This is a serious concern. It is not apocalyptic. If you’re young and healthy, you are still vastly likely to come out of this just fine even if infected regardless of hospitals.

baq 7y ago

i'd love to see your calculations for that. unless you're talking about a temporary uptick in grave digger openings.

AntonStratiev 7y ago
The Imperial College report: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... Full suppression will require total shutdown for ~18 months. Mitigation, specifically requiring the sick and elderly to self-isolate and quarantinging COIVD-19 cases and their families, will result in 2-4 million dead (depending on its effectiveness), with the situation over in 3 months.
- Mediterraneo10 7y ago
  Your post is grim, but I suspect that some countries will make the same calculation as time goes by. Here in Poland, we saw one of the first lockdowns for a European country, but the lockdown stopped at closing the border, schools, large restaurants and malls. Other shops remain open (I just went hat shopping today, for instance), people are traveling between the city and their country homes, and the feeling seems to be now that if you want to avoid infection, it is your own responsibility to stay home instead of expecting the economy to shut down.

CodeCube 7y ago

No ... this is a glimpse of the kind of changes the world needs to make anyways to stave off destructive climate change. The world needs to learn to be together virtually ... that means remote work for knowledge workers, better local communities that let residents walk to get everything they need (groceries, restaurants, bars, etc), less flying to far flung parts of the world (at great carbon cost). We can still greatly expand our reach beyond what many people do today through technology, without having bankers and executives commuting by plane every week.

posnet 7y ago

I am guessing you are not in the 2-4 million people who get to die then?

AntonStratiev 7y ago
No but I am in the tens of millions of Americans who will lose their job and go bankrupt if things continue this way. I could sell my possessions and move back with my elderly parents (ironically exposing them even more to the virus). Suicide is another option if the situation does not improve. At least during a regular economic downturn, you can go to a bar, drink out your sorrows, join a construction crew. Now, during Coronavirus panic, which of these options even remain? It is completely unprecedented to have everything shut. Those who will perish already have existing health conditions, and would have died at some point anyway: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho...
- durge 7y ago
  You have a 100% chance of dying someday.
- Sholmesy 7y ago
  We all will have died at some point anyway.
- dannyr 7y ago
  So if this virus kills people in the same demographic as you instead and you are one of the people dying, you're ok if the government just let you die?
- aguyfromnb 7y ago
  The country has been in lockdown for, what, one week? And already you're talking about letting people die so you can keep your job, or committing suicide? Show a little fortitude, we will get through this.
- gnulinux 7y ago

ardit33 7y ago

Are you a Russian bot?

dmix 7y ago
> Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email us and we'll look at the data. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- rhino369 7y ago
  Not really possible to further degrade discussion that begins with "let 4 million people die"
  - __s 7y ago
    I think responding to that idea with "that idea sounds Russian" does further degrade discussion, as it goes from someone considering cost of life to raising conspiracies that Russia/Asia are trying to leverage this situation to raise the death toll in Western society, which can degrade further into falling deeper down the hole into conspiracies about the virus being intentionally created https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life is a thing, so long as society makes a decision which doesn't absolutely minimize death rates. Why don't we ban cars as a pandemic? There's a clear argument to defend saving 2-3 million Americans (even more world wide) that doesn't involve accusing Russia
inferiorhuman 7y ago
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-disinformation/russia-deploying-coronavirus-disinformation-to-sow-panic-in-west-eu-document-says-idUSKBN21518F https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-disinf...

joshgel 7y ago

That’s not the only problem. Say you aren’t high risk, great! But do you really want to live in a world without a functioning health care system. Because that is what you are promoting. When hospitals get overwhelmed, even minor issues can become catastrophic. In a car crash? Need some surgical repair? Too bad, we’re not open for business because we’re trying to keep critically ill patients alive and need the gowns and equipment for healthcare workers.

AntonStratiev 7y ago
That would only be the case for 3 months, after which those who were most vulnerable to the virus would have perished. 2.8m Americans die annually, basically we are just seeing 1-2 years of deaths brought forward into a 3 month window. It will be harrowing to triage those patients but it can be managed. I would prefer that situation to living through a great depression. Healthcare is irrelevant without a job or any income whatsoever, with huge sections of the economy closed and extensive restrictions on what individuals can and can't do. I have parents in their late 60s who are looking at their entire retirement portfolio evaporating. I have a terminally ill sister and aunt who are faced with spending their final weeks/months in lockdown, with people unable to visit them or attend their funerals. They are struggling to access regular supplies due to hoarding.
- adamsea 7y ago
  Go talk to your friends who have elderly parents or grandparents and see what they think about that. Go have the courage of your convictions and go talk to some elderly people and explain that to them, see what they think about that. I know what I think about that.
- dannyr 7y ago
  The thing is these millions of elderly people dying are someone else's relatives. It could even be yours. Will you be ok with that?
  - pinkfoot 7y ago

lm28469 7y ago

Yes, let's put money before people to prove how great our system is! What if the only sick thing in the first place was our economy ? At least all BS start-ups with no useful products/service living on investors money will start to drop like flies, and if you ask me I'm feeling much better about that than having to burry my parents or grandparents.

ddlatham 7y ago

It's not just the elderly who will die if the system is overwhelmed. Nearly 40% of those that are sick enough to require hospital care are between the ages of 20 and 64[1]. If everyone is getting it at the same time and there's not enough health care to go around, those 20-64 year olds will be dying too. I'm guessing you yourself may fall into that age cohort. [1]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-...

ukabwlsbeux 7y ago
A quick google suggests that 84% of the population is under 65, so this isn’t especially surprising. Every other data source I’ve seen has used age 60 as the benchmark which is probably skewing how we think of these numbers in the US context. % of ICU patients in ages 20-44 is just 2-4%. % of ICU patients under 60 is going to be, eyeballing it, maybe 25-30% with most of concentrated in people in their 50s. If you’re young and would be hospitalized (not ICU), I think it’s pretty unlikely you would die from this even if just left at home. This is a serious concern. It is not apocalyptic. If you’re young and healthy, you are still vastly likely to come out of this just fine even if infected regardless of hospitals.