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I am a little rusty on my probability basics now but I was trying to remember how one would go about answering the following question regarding Wuhan numbers ci
by shekharshan 7y ago
I am a little rusty on my probability basics now but I was trying to remember how one would go about answering the following question regarding Wuhan numbers cited in this study:
"Given a person has type A blood type, what is the probability of that person having covid19"
I remember this being something like P(E1 intersection E2)/P(E2) where E2 = event that a person has type A blood and E1 = event that the person has covid19.
In case of Wuhan 32.16% of the population has type A blood. So E2=0.3216. To get E1 we would need total infections/total population for the city. We don't have that number but is this thinking correct?
- vitus 7y agoYes. In particular, as you describe it, you'd then need to solve for P(E1 ∩ E2) by extrapolating from the existing result of P(E2 | E1) present in the article, then plug it into that formula you've provided. (Bayes' law streamlines the whole process by combining the two-step calculation into one.) edit: a slight nitpick: E2 is an event ("this person has type A blood"); P(E2) is a number.