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In the pdf report there is a nice table at the bottom of page 5. Not only is the CFR lower than I had anticipated, but it made me realize that a hospital trip

In the pdf report there is a nice table at the bottom of page 5. Not only is the CFR lower than I had anticipated, but it made me realize that a hospital trip doesn't immediately imply intensive care. For instance a 35 year old has 3.2% chance of going to hospital, and then 5% chance of ending up in the ICU when going to hospital. Can I multiply these together to get 0.16% chance of ending up in the ICU once infected, or is that too simplistic :)

jbc1 7y ago
That seems way less dangerous to young people than I'm otherwise seeing reported, and this is the report that's apparently so extreme it got the UK and US to finally do something. What with all the people who are obese, smoke heavily, have asthma, immune compromised, etc I would have assumed 0.16% of people find themselves in the ICU if they get a cold.
- 8fingerlouie 7y ago
  Italy reported today that 99% of the COVID-19 deaths in Italy had a preexisting condition. If you're healthy you (probably) don't have anything to worry about, but if you're diabetic, smoking, have hypertension or other normally manageable conditions, you're (maybe) at risk. And to all the healthy people who seems to think they're immune. You probably won't die from it, but someone in your close family may very well die because you didn't take it seriously.
8fingerlouie 7y ago
The problem with the CFR is that it assumes that everybody can get the care they need. If the health system gets swamped by 50% of a country's population, then you basically have the same situation as they have in Italy. We're just at the very beginning here in Denmark, the number of hospitalized people has roughly doubled every day for the past 3-4 days, and already hospitals are running out of masks and other essential equipment. Since the world is in lockdown, and everybody is fighting this, basic supplies are in short demand everywhere.
saber6 7y ago
> Can I multiply these together to get 0.16% chance of ending up in the ICU once infected, or is that too simplistic :) Not a medical professional, but I believe the "danger zone" is somewhere in between your admittance % and ICU level of care %. If these extreme measures were not taken, we ran (and still do run) the risk of relatively healthy people dying from lack of ventilators, and other basic medical items.

jbc1 7y ago

That seems way less dangerous to young people than I'm otherwise seeing reported, and this is the report that's apparently so extreme it got the UK and US to finally do something. What with all the people who are obese, smoke heavily, have asthma, immune compromised, etc I would have assumed 0.16% of people find themselves in the ICU if they get a cold.

8fingerlouie 7y ago
Italy reported today that 99% of the COVID-19 deaths in Italy had a preexisting condition. If you're healthy you (probably) don't have anything to worry about, but if you're diabetic, smoking, have hypertension or other normally manageable conditions, you're (maybe) at risk. And to all the healthy people who seems to think they're immune. You probably won't die from it, but someone in your close family may very well die because you didn't take it seriously.

8fingerlouie 7y ago

The problem with the CFR is that it assumes that everybody can get the care they need. If the health system gets swamped by 50% of a country's population, then you basically have the same situation as they have in Italy. We're just at the very beginning here in Denmark, the number of hospitalized people has roughly doubled every day for the past 3-4 days, and already hospitals are running out of masks and other essential equipment. Since the world is in lockdown, and everybody is fighting this, basic supplies are in short demand everywhere.

saber6 7y ago

> Can I multiply these together to get 0.16% chance of ending up in the ICU once infected, or is that too simplistic :) Not a medical professional, but I believe the "danger zone" is somewhere in between your admittance % and ICU level of care %. If these extreme measures were not taken, we ran (and still do run) the risk of relatively healthy people dying from lack of ventilators, and other basic medical items.