5 ms·
Landmark report not because it's likely to be accurate, but it scared the UK (and perhaps the US) into action from the high mortality figures based on the lates
by Leary 7y ago
Landmark report not because it's likely to be accurate, but it scared the UK (and perhaps the US) into action from the high mortality figures based on the latest Italian data.
However, let's look at how the report underestimates the effectiveness of interventions:
Case isolation in the home: Reduces non-household contacts by 75% and assumes 70% of households comply : so only reduces non-household contacts by 52%
Voluntary home quarantine: Reduces community contacts by 75% but assumes only 50% of household complies.
Social Distancing: "Reduce contacts by 50% in workplaces, increase household contacts by 25% and reduce other contacts by 75%. Assume 75% compliance with policy."
Social distancing of entire population: "All households reduce contact outside household, school or workplace by 75%. School contact rates unchanged, workplace contact rates reduced by 25%. Household contact rates assumed to increase by 25%."
Closure of schools and universities: "Closure of all schools, 25% of universities remain open. Household contact rates for student families increase by 50% during closure. Contacts in the community increase by 25% during closure. "
25%, 50%, 75%... Where did they come up with these figures??
- andbberger 7y agoUnfortunately I don't think that undermines the essential conclusion of the report.
- 1996 7y ago> 25%, 50%, 75%... Where did they come up with these figures?? When numbers are too round, the good old "finger in the air"
- hnzix 7y ago> School contact rates unchanged I'm in a country with mandatory social distancing, and parents are still having school cricket and soccer matches in the local park. The parents are all clustered together watching. They think their children are "immune".