6 ms·
Here's a scenario I'm curious about. Chickenpox parties for young and healthy people who are then isolated. Use heavy suppression to make sure there are ventila
by im3w1l 7y ago
Here's a scenario I'm curious about. Chickenpox parties for young and healthy people who are then isolated. Use heavy suppression to make sure there are ventilators available for them should they be needed.
My gut feeling is that this could create herd immunity at small cost.
- zaksoup 7y ago1/500 dead for all 20-40yo even with medical intervention is not a small cost...
- tonyedgecombe 7y agoExclude the vunerable in that age range and it would be much lower.
- onion2k 7y ago"If you ignore some of the deaths then the number is lower" is an odd response. Why would you exclude vulnerable people?
- johncolanduoni 7y agoAssuming they know they’re vulnerable they presumably wouldn’t go to these parties. However that’s quite an assumption, particularly among young people.
- im3w1l 7y agoYou could have screenings beforehand.
- odkamkfn 7y agoBecause shutting down the economy will kill people, too. It will also decrease quality of life for everyone, and disrupt families, communities, cities and countries. I don't even know what the best course of action is, but there are trade-offs that a lot of people here seem to be ignoring.
- serpix 7y agoExclude the [non-people] in that age range and it would be much lower. We are all humans. All life is sacred.
- ramblerman 7y agoI'm pretty sure OP meant, exclude them from going to the party. Not exclude the statistic
- sveme 7y agoBasing pandemic interventions on the gut feeling of a random internet guy sounds foolproof to me.
- im3w1l 7y agoI'm putting the idea out there so we can discuss it first obviously.
- leereeves 7y agoI see a possible problem with the idea: > Chickenpox parties for young and healthy people who are then isolated. Sign here to be given coronavirus and locked away for a month...
- anarticle 7y agoStick to software.
- pjc50 7y agoThis was roughly the UK strategy until the message that it would result in about 250k dead finally got through. Natural spread is already outpacing likely ventilation requirements; we'll find out in a couple of weeks how badly.
- im3w1l 7y agoNatural spread is way inferior to artificial spread. By doing it artificially you can control exactly who gets it, can monitor them more easily, and can prevent the vulnerable from getting it. And you can very precisely control the rate of spread.
- Jedd 7y agoThis only works if people do what they're told, and re-infection rates are low & slow - and we suspect they neither is the case.
- pjc50 7y ago.. but meanwhile the natural spread is going on? It's a bit like saying a controlled burn can stop a forest fire - it's true, but it can easily get lost in the scale when you have an Australian or Californian situation and half the state is on fire.
- im3w1l 7y agoIn either case you need to put a quarantine in place. But with artificial spread, it's needed for a much shorter duration.
- amanaplanacanal 7y agoHow do you keep the people who went to the party from infecting the people who didn't go?