5 ms·

When you have things like the New York Times publishing articles about how the CDC is publishing misleading information, or the WHO and the South Korean governm

by lacker 7y ago

When you have things like the New York Times publishing articles about how the CDC is publishing misleading information, or the WHO and the South Korean government publish contradictory guidelines, or the federal government announcing one thing one day and the opposite thing the next day, then you really can't just blindly trust an authoritative source any more. It's impossible, because the authoritative sources don't agree with each other! Everyone is forced to do their own amateur analysis. It is no surprise that given the situation, many people are publishing their own amateur analyses. IMO this is better than the situation in previous similar disasters. Like in the 1918 influenza epidemic, many governments censored information, and there was no social media to circumvent this, so the public understanding of the real situation was quite poor.

m0zg 7y ago
I think _everyone's_ understanding of the situation is quite poor, not just the public's. If you read studies of the previous epidemics such as SARS, H1N1 etc, you will see that early in the epidemic cycle everyone tends to exaggerate the impact in all aspects, sometimes by orders of magnitude, in part because it's safer to err on the side of caution rather than not be cautious enough, and in part for selfish reasons ("woo-hoo, I get my 15 minutes of fame after working for peanuts in some godforsaken epidemiology lab for a decade"), but mostly the former. For bird flu, for example, the initial prediction was "up to" 150M deaths worldwide: https://slate.com/technology/2009/05/the-problems-with-the-world-health-organization-s-approach-to-pandemics.html#:~:text=Back%20in%20the%20fall%20of,could%20die%20of%20bird%20flu.&text=The%20WHO's%20Global%20Influenza%20Preparedness,the%20H5N1%20avian%20flu%20scare https://slate.com/technology/2009/05/the-problems-with-the-w.... This estimate, supposedly, came from one of he most "informed" people in the world. People just hate unknowns, and especially "unknown unknowns" and therefore latch onto the most dramatic damage estimates and act accordingly, often further exacerbating the situation.
- wool_gather 7y ago
  This is why the lack of testing is so galling: more information would help everyone -- predictors and consumers of those predictions -- stay calmer.
  - MikeAmelung 7y ago
    I want to see serological testing results from random samples of the population... hopefully we get that soon.
    - wool_gather 7y ago
      Amen!
    - jpxw 7y ago
      Is there any idea on when exactly this might happen? Here in the UK we’re hearing about this a lot in the daily updates, but there is never a concrete time. It could be a gamechanger.
      - MikeAmelung 7y ago
        I have no idea of any plans to start doing the testing, but: https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/biomerica-begins-shipping-samples-of-10-minute-test-for-covid-19-virus-exposure-/ https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/biomerica-begins-s... https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/ https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covi... Maybe we need more people on Twitter to start demanding it? (I'm not really being sarcastic, as crazy as that sounds.)
im3w1l 7y ago
I remember the time I started worrying was when the former leader of CDC sounded the alarm (forgot url). And then confirmed after the House Hearing Feb 5th (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSO8jW_TDCI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSO8jW_TDCI). This combined with the Chinese situation then together was much more convincing than my bumbling Swedish government.
asdfman123 7y ago
I've heard government officials say don't trust "rumors you hear on the internet," which his incredibly condescending because the government has lied over and over again about the scope of this crisis, and /r/coronavirus made me aware of exactly what was going to happen, and exactly how to prepare. So, no thank you. I will continue to take my own safety into my own hands, because they seem more concerned with the safety of business interests.

by lacker 7y ago

m0zg 7y ago

I think _everyone's_ understanding of the situation is quite poor, not just the public's. If you read studies of the previous epidemics such as SARS, H1N1 etc, you will see that early in the epidemic cycle everyone tends to exaggerate the impact in all aspects, sometimes by orders of magnitude, in part because it's safer to err on the side of caution rather than not be cautious enough, and in part for selfish reasons ("woo-hoo, I get my 15 minutes of fame after working for peanuts in some godforsaken epidemiology lab for a decade"), but mostly the former. For bird flu, for example, the initial prediction was "up to" 150M deaths worldwide: https://slate.com/technology/2009/05/the-problems-with-the-world-health-organization-s-approach-to-pandemics.html#:~:text=Back%20in%20the%20fall%20of,could%20die%20of%20bird%20flu.&text=The%20WHO's%20Global%20Influenza%20Preparedness,the%20H5N1%20avian%20flu%20scare https://slate.com/technology/2009/05/the-problems-with-the-w.... This estimate, supposedly, came from one of he most "informed" people in the world. People just hate unknowns, and especially "unknown unknowns" and therefore latch onto the most dramatic damage estimates and act accordingly, often further exacerbating the situation.

wool_gather 7y ago
This is why the lack of testing is so galling: more information would help everyone -- predictors and consumers of those predictions -- stay calmer.
- MikeAmelung 7y ago
  I want to see serological testing results from random samples of the population... hopefully we get that soon.
  - wool_gather 7y ago
    Amen!
  - jpxw 7y ago
    Is there any idea on when exactly this might happen? Here in the UK we’re hearing about this a lot in the daily updates, but there is never a concrete time. It could be a gamechanger.
    - MikeAmelung 7y ago
      I have no idea of any plans to start doing the testing, but: https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/biomerica-begins-shipping-samples-of-10-minute-test-for-covid-19-virus-exposure-/ https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/biomerica-begins-s... https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/ https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covi... Maybe we need more people on Twitter to start demanding it? (I'm not really being sarcastic, as crazy as that sounds.)

im3w1l 7y ago

I remember the time I started worrying was when the former leader of CDC sounded the alarm (forgot url). And then confirmed after the House Hearing Feb 5th (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSO8jW_TDCI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSO8jW_TDCI). This combined with the Chinese situation then together was much more convincing than my bumbling Swedish government.

asdfman123 7y ago

I've heard government officials say don't trust "rumors you hear on the internet," which his incredibly condescending because the government has lied over and over again about the scope of this crisis, and /r/coronavirus made me aware of exactly what was going to happen, and exactly how to prepare. So, no thank you. I will continue to take my own safety into my own hands, because they seem more concerned with the safety of business interests.