I'm just quoting experts. But I agree with your point. Only one of them stated that figure with "confidence", but he also was clearly motivated to downplay the

I'm just quoting experts. But I agree with your point. Only one of them stated that figure with "confidence", but he also was clearly motivated to downplay the risk because he was worried about panic. My intuition is that a final case mortality < 1.5% would be towards a "best case" outcome; and we should expect worse.