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The virus did not "pass" in China. China managed to get the spread to slow down to a crawl, by implementing a severe total shutdown of everything and keeping th
by Slartie 7y ago
The virus did not "pass" in China. China managed to get the spread to slow down to a crawl, by implementing a severe total shutdown of everything and keeping that up for some weeks. They are still in the process of removing those brakes again, and as far as I know, they are still at a pretty early point in that process, meaning lots of brake power is still applied.
There is absolutely nothing preventing the virus from resuming to spread as soon as economic and social activity continues to return towards normal level. In fact, most experts expect exactly that to happen, albeit maybe at a bit of a slower speed than before (due to some people being immune and people generally being a bit more cautious in their daily lives now).
Oh, and due to the incubation time, you'll not see any negative effect in testing results from removing the brakes for about 10-12 days. It's the same thing as when they were applied. So what's described above will happen, even though for 10 days you might wonder "What's the deal? The infection numbers still look good!".
This is far from over, in China and anywhere else.
- kart23 7y agoChinas new cases per day rate is effectively zero at this point. They beat it, plain and simple. And only 3,000 people died from coronavirus. Compared with literally any other cause of death, it's a tiny blip, even negligible. Around 11 million people died in china last year. How does such a contagious virus simply stop spreading? after infecting a just tiny percentage of the population. Their economy is coming back up and life is pretty much back to normal over there, while the rest of the world is just headed into it.
- Slartie 7y agoI'm still looking for a rational explanation in your comment why the virus should just have "vanished" in China and NOT resume spreading when life gets back to normal.
- kart23 7y agoI don't know either. It's weird, and I don't know enough about disease or epidemics to know.
- BoorishBears 7y agoIf we weren't talking about the kind of authoritarian government that probably would have been able to stop this outbreak in it's infancy if it didn't have local officials prioritizing suppress news about it reaching higher levels of government... maybe I'd be more charitable to these claims. I can tell you personally, factories I was in contact with about totally non-pandemic related industries, with capacity that I highly doubt can be repurposed for supplies, are still talking about extensive delays for any sort of order.
- irishcoffee 7y agoOccam 's Razor: china is lying.
- kart23 7y agoabout which part is the question. Or our media was lying to us.
- xiphias2 7y ago> How does such a contagious virus simply stop spreading? It's quite simple: noone is permitted to go outside without a mask, and they ramped up testing and manufacturing masks, like any reasonable country would. Meanwhile in the west ,,masks are not important for people, just for doctors''.
- Leary 7y agoWrong! Local clusters can be suppressed when your testing and contact tracing capacity greatly exceeds the number of new cases. China's new domestic cases are in the single digits now. Even unsupressed, it will take weeks for the disease to become out of control again. These so called "experts", particularly those in positions of power in the UK will cause untold damage if they rely on their assumption of this phantom second outbreak.
- Slartie 7y agoSorry, but there's no government on earth, including China's, that's able to do reliable contact tracing of people potentially going to massive gatherings. Heck, they don't even need to do that - have you ever been in the Shanghai Metro? You'll have "contact" with thousands of anonymous people if you just commute to work and back again. Trace that! The only thing I agree to is "it will take weeks for the disease to become out of control again". Yes, it will, and that is part of the problem - it'll be at least half a month until it's even possible for you to notice that you're getting the same problem all over again.