4 ms·
down side loss risk is huge, up side gain risk is not huge. So bold and illogical decision it seems.
by mrinfinite 7y ago
down side loss risk is huge, up side gain risk is not huge. So bold and illogical decision it seems.
- elisharobinson 7y agoi dont appose the sentiment but i appose the statement of this being a illogical decission. lets assume that unit of loss to tesla is 1 , loss associated with virus affecting customers and employees -> 5 . loss associated with virus shuting down production indefinitely -> 30 , loss associated with authorites suing you for breaking the law 0.3 . probability of the factory being shut down by authorities -> 0.8 , probability of your employees and customers getting affected -> 0.7 and probability of authorities suing you for breaking the order is 0.5 . so in total (30x0.8) > (5x0.7 + 0.5x0.3) . we might disagree in the scale and probabilities but the conclusion that this was a illogical decission is not direct.
- rsynnott 7y agoPublicity from their factory becoming a Coronavirus locus... priceless. There's a _huge_ negative publicity risk here, depending on how things unfold.
- elisharobinson 7y agothe customers may come and they may not come , but if the plant stays shut the whole company will shut down specially after having a lot of capx to get a new production line for making model y.