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Musk is going to be totally destroyed later for that, especially as COVID-19 spreads in the US. I don't understand the logic over this decision to stay open 'be

Musk is going to be totally destroyed later for that, especially as COVID-19 spreads in the US. I don't understand the logic over this decision to stay open 'because fears are overblown.' Especially since it's clear that the biggest problem isn't going to be coronavirus, which will pass within a few month, but an economic recession that will follow. Tesla is going to be hammered either way, why risk your employee health now?

mrinfinite 7y ago
down side loss risk is huge, up side gain risk is not huge. So bold and illogical decision it seems.
- elisharobinson 7y ago
  i dont appose the sentiment but i appose the statement of this being a illogical decission. lets assume that unit of loss to tesla is 1 , loss associated with virus affecting customers and employees -> 5 . loss associated with virus shuting down production indefinitely -> 30 , loss associated with authorites suing you for breaking the law 0.3 . probability of the factory being shut down by authorities -> 0.8 , probability of your employees and customers getting affected -> 0.7 and probability of authorities suing you for breaking the order is 0.5 . so in total (30x0.8) > (5x0.7 + 0.5x0.3) . we might disagree in the scale and probabilities but the conclusion that this was a illogical decission is not direct.
  - rsynnott 7y ago
    Publicity from their factory becoming a Coronavirus locus... priceless. There's a _huge_ negative publicity risk here, depending on how things unfold.
    - elisharobinson 7y ago
      the customers may come and they may not come , but if the plant stays shut the whole company will shut down specially after having a lot of capx to get a new production line for making model y.
jsight 7y ago
The excessive focus on Musk is counterproductive, IMO. AFAIK, F, GM, and Nissan are not closing factories in the US. These companies are very unlikely to do so without being forced.
- JackPoach 7y ago
  Their employees certainly aren't happy about that either - https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/17/united-auto-workers-call-on-gm-ford-fca-to-shut-down-u-s-factories/ https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/17/united-auto-workers-call-o... especially given https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-generalmotors/gm-ford-say-employees-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19-idUSKBN2142J5 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-genera...
- fennecfoxen 7y ago
  let's add some news context "Honda Plans to Shut Down North American Plants for Six Days Due to Virus Concerns, Demand Decline" https://www.wsj.com/articles/honda-plans-to-shut-down-north-american-plants-for-six-days-due-to-virus-concerns-demand-decline-11584537844 https://www.wsj.com/articles/honda-plans-to-shut-down-north-... "UAW, Auto Makers Agree to Partial Plant Shutdowns to Curtail Coronavirus. Ford temporarily closes Chicago factory for virus-related parts shortage... The United Auto Workers and Detroit car companies reached agreements on coronavirus-mitigation efforts that for now will avoid a two-week shutdown of U.S. factories." https://www.wsj.com/articles/uaw-presses-auto-makers-to-close-u-s-plants-over-coronavirus-concerns-11584465805 https://www.wsj.com/articles/uaw-presses-auto-makers-to-clos... "Volkswagen, Airbus Halt European Production Amid Wave of Factory Closures" (Europe not US) https://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen-airbus-halt-european-production-amid-wave-of-factory-closures-11584442105 https://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen-airbus-halt-european...
- neaden 7y ago
  I don't believe any of those companies have factories that are in areas that are under shut down orders though. And I don't think any of those companies CEOs have been publicly going on Twitter to dismiss people's fears over COVID.
fennecfoxen 7y ago
If the fears are really overblown, Elon Musk ought to consider suing over the quarantine order before violating it. He'd have a meaningful case, as this is an entirely unprecedented abrogation of civil liberties, and it is not clear that it was applied with due process of law. (The ultimate wisdom of his position is neither endorsed nor condemned by this post.)
- rrss 7y ago
  What would the case look like? CA has laws on the books that gives county health officers the authority to do basically anything in a state of emergency. What would the argument be to overturn those laws?
  - fennecfoxen 7y ago
    California law is indeed broad ("Each health officer knowing or having reason to believe that any case of the diseases made reportable by regulation of the department, or any other contagious, infectious or communicable disease exists, or has recently existed, within the territory under his or her jurisdiction, shall take measures as may be necessary to prevent the spread of the disease or occurrence of additional cases.") If, for the purpose of argument, we stipulate as fact that the fears are overblown, he might be able to successfully attack this order as "unnecessary" under that law, but that sounds iffy, and the health officers will no doubt be afforded substantial deference. A better avenue for attack would be via the US Constitution and its basic protections for civil rights, liberty, and freedom of assembly. The Fifth Amendment specifically applies, forbidding that anyone "be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law." The regional lockdown affects ~7 million people, to contain a disease that has affected ~300 (?) known patients (please correct me if this is badly wrong) so this lockdown may be serving a compelling government interest, but it is probably not doing so via the least restrictive means available, which would usually be the standard for abrogating civil liberties. It's a meaningful case, at least. Whether he wins or loses such a hypothetical case, though, it would leave things clearer than the situation which jgalt observes nearby: > it seems more like Musk is the sort to get sued, not the one to be suing Better to be fighting in the courts from the start, rather than being confronted by the sheriff partway through the workday.

mrinfinite 7y ago

down side loss risk is huge, up side gain risk is not huge. So bold and illogical decision it seems.

elisharobinson 7y ago
i dont appose the sentiment but i appose the statement of this being a illogical decission. lets assume that unit of loss to tesla is 1 , loss associated with virus affecting customers and employees -> 5 . loss associated with virus shuting down production indefinitely -> 30 , loss associated with authorites suing you for breaking the law 0.3 . probability of the factory being shut down by authorities -> 0.8 , probability of your employees and customers getting affected -> 0.7 and probability of authorities suing you for breaking the order is 0.5 . so in total (30x0.8) > (5x0.7 + 0.5x0.3) . we might disagree in the scale and probabilities but the conclusion that this was a illogical decission is not direct.
- rsynnott 7y ago
  Publicity from their factory becoming a Coronavirus locus... priceless. There's a _huge_ negative publicity risk here, depending on how things unfold.
  - elisharobinson 7y ago
    the customers may come and they may not come , but if the plant stays shut the whole company will shut down specially after having a lot of capx to get a new production line for making model y.

jsight 7y ago

The excessive focus on Musk is counterproductive, IMO. AFAIK, F, GM, and Nissan are not closing factories in the US. These companies are very unlikely to do so without being forced.

JackPoach 7y ago
Their employees certainly aren't happy about that either - https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/17/united-auto-workers-call-on-gm-ford-fca-to-shut-down-u-s-factories/ https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/17/united-auto-workers-call-o... especially given https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-generalmotors/gm-ford-say-employees-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19-idUSKBN2142J5 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-genera...
fennecfoxen 7y ago
let's add some news context "Honda Plans to Shut Down North American Plants for Six Days Due to Virus Concerns, Demand Decline" https://www.wsj.com/articles/honda-plans-to-shut-down-north-american-plants-for-six-days-due-to-virus-concerns-demand-decline-11584537844 https://www.wsj.com/articles/honda-plans-to-shut-down-north-... "UAW, Auto Makers Agree to Partial Plant Shutdowns to Curtail Coronavirus. Ford temporarily closes Chicago factory for virus-related parts shortage... The United Auto Workers and Detroit car companies reached agreements on coronavirus-mitigation efforts that for now will avoid a two-week shutdown of U.S. factories." https://www.wsj.com/articles/uaw-presses-auto-makers-to-close-u-s-plants-over-coronavirus-concerns-11584465805 https://www.wsj.com/articles/uaw-presses-auto-makers-to-clos... "Volkswagen, Airbus Halt European Production Amid Wave of Factory Closures" (Europe not US) https://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen-airbus-halt-european-production-amid-wave-of-factory-closures-11584442105 https://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen-airbus-halt-european...
neaden 7y ago
I don't believe any of those companies have factories that are in areas that are under shut down orders though. And I don't think any of those companies CEOs have been publicly going on Twitter to dismiss people's fears over COVID.

fennecfoxen 7y ago

If the fears are really overblown, Elon Musk ought to consider suing over the quarantine order before violating it. He'd have a meaningful case, as this is an entirely unprecedented abrogation of civil liberties, and it is not clear that it was applied with due process of law. (The ultimate wisdom of his position is neither endorsed nor condemned by this post.)

rrss 7y ago
What would the case look like? CA has laws on the books that gives county health officers the authority to do basically anything in a state of emergency. What would the argument be to overturn those laws?
- fennecfoxen 7y ago
  California law is indeed broad ("Each health officer knowing or having reason to believe that any case of the diseases made reportable by regulation of the department, or any other contagious, infectious or communicable disease exists, or has recently existed, within the territory under his or her jurisdiction, shall take measures as may be necessary to prevent the spread of the disease or occurrence of additional cases.") If, for the purpose of argument, we stipulate as fact that the fears are overblown, he might be able to successfully attack this order as "unnecessary" under that law, but that sounds iffy, and the health officers will no doubt be afforded substantial deference. A better avenue for attack would be via the US Constitution and its basic protections for civil rights, liberty, and freedom of assembly. The Fifth Amendment specifically applies, forbidding that anyone "be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law." The regional lockdown affects ~7 million people, to contain a disease that has affected ~300 (?) known patients (please correct me if this is badly wrong) so this lockdown may be serving a compelling government interest, but it is probably not doing so via the least restrictive means available, which would usually be the standard for abrogating civil liberties. It's a meaningful case, at least. Whether he wins or loses such a hypothetical case, though, it would leave things clearer than the situation which jgalt observes nearby: > it seems more like Musk is the sort to get sued, not the one to be suing Better to be fighting in the courts from the start, rather than being confronted by the sheriff partway through the workday.