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Yes, this is a risk and it makes sense. During the great depression, there were significant decreases in inflation[1]. But what am I risking? I might lose 50% o

Yes, this is a risk and it makes sense. During the great depression, there were significant decreases in inflation[1]. But what am I risking? I might lose 50% of the few thousand dollars I put into silver, but it protects me against unexpected movements or a dollar crash during an unparalleled period of time in modern history. It ensures I'll have money to eat. [1] https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-cpi-consumer-price-index-1930-1939/ https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-cpi-consumer-pr...

nabla9 7y ago
By all means keep little silver or gold in the case the whole society collapses or for emotional reasons. You don't have to defend it. You have to defend the argumentation you arrived into it. The problem I had your comment was the rationalization for what you did. When US was trying to hold to gold standard, population growth was high and the country was barely industrialized, you could expect inflation. None of the reasons that applied then apply today. (Gold standard is similar to debt in denominated in foreign currency. It can cause out of control inflation and even hyperinflation.)
- TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
  I understand there may be flaws in my logic, but what flaws were there? You basically said I was wrong and the market believes otherwise, but you didn't explain how my beliefs on the varying velocity of money wouldn't or couldn't create inflation in the next year or so.
  - nabla9 7y ago
    Because increasing velocity of money is very unlikely. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/i...
    - TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
      That chart kind of proves my point though. People are moving from stocks to bonds as risk in stocks increases, yet the long-term outlook of the economy(10+ years) is largely unchanged. Despite this, the government is injecting tons of money during a time of a global quarantine that will eventually be lifted. When that lifts, people will buy a surge of supplies that they are depleting during this time, leading to a spike in demand in most things. Am I seeing this wrong?
      - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
        That spike in demand will pass, and we will (we hope) settle down to a steady state. That steady state is (in the market's opinion) not much different from the steady state that we would have had without the pandemic. That's why the market is still predicting the 10-years-out state as being the same as it predicted before this crisis.

nabla9 7y ago

By all means keep little silver or gold in the case the whole society collapses or for emotional reasons. You don't have to defend it. You have to defend the argumentation you arrived into it. The problem I had your comment was the rationalization for what you did. When US was trying to hold to gold standard, population growth was high and the country was barely industrialized, you could expect inflation. None of the reasons that applied then apply today. (Gold standard is similar to debt in denominated in foreign currency. It can cause out of control inflation and even hyperinflation.)

TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
I understand there may be flaws in my logic, but what flaws were there? You basically said I was wrong and the market believes otherwise, but you didn't explain how my beliefs on the varying velocity of money wouldn't or couldn't create inflation in the next year or so.
- nabla9 7y ago
  Because increasing velocity of money is very unlikely. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/i...
  - TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
    That chart kind of proves my point though. People are moving from stocks to bonds as risk in stocks increases, yet the long-term outlook of the economy(10+ years) is largely unchanged. Despite this, the government is injecting tons of money during a time of a global quarantine that will eventually be lifted. When that lifts, people will buy a surge of supplies that they are depleting during this time, leading to a spike in demand in most things. Am I seeing this wrong?
    - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
      That spike in demand will pass, and we will (we hope) settle down to a steady state. That steady state is (in the market's opinion) not much different from the steady state that we would have had without the pandemic. That's why the market is still predicting the 10-years-out state as being the same as it predicted before this crisis.