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The flu is community spread, and not possible to contain. There are many strains, and immunity to the previous season's flu does not provide immunity to this on

by Cogito 7y ago

The flu is community spread, and not possible to contain. There are many strains, and immunity to the previous season's flu does not provide immunity to this one. The new virus can be contained, at least could have been though perhaps it's too late for that. The only thing keeping the deaths so low to this point has been the containment efforts. The flu does not overrun an entire country's hospital system like COVID-19 has done to Italy. It is misinformation to blindly compare total deaths between two diseases like you are.

Barrin92 7y ago
>The flu does not overrun an entire country's hospital system like COVID-19 has done to Italy. to be fair it certainly can and does. The 2017/2018 influenza pandemic was probably the worst one in a decade, with 35 million infections, 700 000 hospitalizations and 60k deaths, and people for a while were treated in tents and a state of emergency was declared in Alabama, and Southern California and Texas had to turn away patients. https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/ https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie...
- peterisza 7y ago
  And that's a 0.2% mortality rate, still nowhere near as bad as even the lowest estimates for COVID-19.
  - Barrin92 7y ago
    That's a different discussion than the question if regular flu seasons can overload the healthcare systems. Yes they can, and we regularly underestimate them. And I'd actually also disagree that this is 'nowhere near as bad' as COVID-19. In countries like Germany or South Korea the death toll with high rates of testing appears to be somewhere in the 0.2 - 1% range. That's something I would argue is a difference in quantity rather than quality, with the dangers lying in the aggregate disease burden and vulnerable populations in particular.
    - Cogito 7y ago
      Something I meant to say upthread slightly and didn't: It seems like the nature of the overloading is different. In particular, from those reports you mentioned, it doesn't seem like staff had to decide which patients to treat or not. With COVID-19 we are hearing reports of some patients not being treated because there is not enough capacity (either staff or equipment) and so the death rates can be very high as many people receive inadequate treatment.
- Cogito 7y ago
  Thanks, those are good examples I hadn't heard of. From the descriptions there and coming out of Italy it should be clear that COVID-19 is much worse than the worst flu we've seen in a decade. The only thing keeping deaths low to this point is that it isn't as widespread.
  - kragen 7y ago
    It seems comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu, which started in Kansas, except that so far it kills old people almost exclusively, not children or people in their prime. Hopefully it won't mutate. Nevertheless, it's not a flu.
ghastmaster 7y ago
>It is misinformation to blindly compare total deaths between two diseases like you are. mis•in•for•ma•tion ► n. Wrong information; false account or intelligence. n. Untrue or incorrect information. n. Information that is incorrect. I disagree.
- Cogito 7y ago
  Misinformation includes misleading information. Even if a statement is technically correct it can be designed to (or can accidentally) mislead people into coming to the wrong conclusion. From the start you were advocating the conclusion that this "will do just the same as any other flu" and then compared total deaths to date in support of that conclusion. The conclusion is misinformed because the comparison is not valid. For it to be a valid comparison, as others have stated in the thread, we need to compare the projected cases and deaths NOT the current deaths as you have done. Stating the numbers the way you have, uncritically and without the relevant context, is misinformation because it is misleading.
  - ghastmaster 7y ago
    You're logic causes panic that will lead to overwhelmed hospital systems and massive deaths. It is misinformation that should be squelched.
    - Cogito 7y ago
      Sorry, I'm not sure what you're referring to. My point is that you should compare projected number of infections and deaths from COVID-19 to the flu. If you do, it's clear that this is not just another flu. I'm not sure what aspect of that will lead to overwhelmed hospital systems and massive deaths. The advice I've been hearing is that - if you have COVID-19 symptoms, self isolate (and lots of areas are moving to 'shelter in place' style restrictions in any case) - if you are in an at-risk population, self isolate - if you've been in contact with COVID-19, or travelled, self isolate There is some concern over when to test, mostly because there is a shortage of kits in some places.

by Cogito 7y ago

Barrin92 7y ago

>The flu does not overrun an entire country's hospital system like COVID-19 has done to Italy. to be fair it certainly can and does. The 2017/2018 influenza pandemic was probably the worst one in a decade, with 35 million infections, 700 000 hospitalizations and 60k deaths, and people for a while were treated in tents and a state of emergency was declared in Alabama, and Southern California and Texas had to turn away patients. https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/ https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie...

peterisza 7y ago
And that's a 0.2% mortality rate, still nowhere near as bad as even the lowest estimates for COVID-19.
- Barrin92 7y ago
  That's a different discussion than the question if regular flu seasons can overload the healthcare systems. Yes they can, and we regularly underestimate them. And I'd actually also disagree that this is 'nowhere near as bad' as COVID-19. In countries like Germany or South Korea the death toll with high rates of testing appears to be somewhere in the 0.2 - 1% range. That's something I would argue is a difference in quantity rather than quality, with the dangers lying in the aggregate disease burden and vulnerable populations in particular.
  - Cogito 7y ago
    Something I meant to say upthread slightly and didn't: It seems like the nature of the overloading is different. In particular, from those reports you mentioned, it doesn't seem like staff had to decide which patients to treat or not. With COVID-19 we are hearing reports of some patients not being treated because there is not enough capacity (either staff or equipment) and so the death rates can be very high as many people receive inadequate treatment.
Cogito 7y ago
Thanks, those are good examples I hadn't heard of. From the descriptions there and coming out of Italy it should be clear that COVID-19 is much worse than the worst flu we've seen in a decade. The only thing keeping deaths low to this point is that it isn't as widespread.
- kragen 7y ago
  It seems comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu, which started in Kansas, except that so far it kills old people almost exclusively, not children or people in their prime. Hopefully it won't mutate. Nevertheless, it's not a flu.

ghastmaster 7y ago

>It is misinformation to blindly compare total deaths between two diseases like you are. mis•in•for•ma•tion ► n. Wrong information; false account or intelligence. n. Untrue or incorrect information. n. Information that is incorrect. I disagree.

Cogito 7y ago
Misinformation includes misleading information. Even if a statement is technically correct it can be designed to (or can accidentally) mislead people into coming to the wrong conclusion. From the start you were advocating the conclusion that this "will do just the same as any other flu" and then compared total deaths to date in support of that conclusion. The conclusion is misinformed because the comparison is not valid. For it to be a valid comparison, as others have stated in the thread, we need to compare the projected cases and deaths NOT the current deaths as you have done. Stating the numbers the way you have, uncritically and without the relevant context, is misinformation because it is misleading.
- ghastmaster 7y ago
  You're logic causes panic that will lead to overwhelmed hospital systems and massive deaths. It is misinformation that should be squelched.
  - Cogito 7y ago
    Sorry, I'm not sure what you're referring to. My point is that you should compare projected number of infections and deaths from COVID-19 to the flu. If you do, it's clear that this is not just another flu. I'm not sure what aspect of that will lead to overwhelmed hospital systems and massive deaths. The advice I've been hearing is that - if you have COVID-19 symptoms, self isolate (and lots of areas are moving to 'shelter in place' style restrictions in any case) - if you are in an at-risk population, self isolate - if you've been in contact with COVID-19, or travelled, self isolate There is some concern over when to test, mostly because there is a shortage of kits in some places.