what do you mean by "over"? i don't see the ability to do quarantine style lockdown for >3 months myself, if that's what you meant. there are a lot of 2nd (or

what do you mean by "over"? i don't see the ability to do quarantine style lockdown for >3 months myself, if that's what you meant. there are a lot of 2nd (or >1th) order effects that i suspect will mean that people give up the ghost on flattening the curve. here are some i'm imagining myself; others probably know way more than me: - the local restaurants are probably well on their way to having shut down. the commercial real estate they rented or owned has way lower prospects of getting picked up. so commercial landlords are hurting. - ditto above for tourism towns, whose commercial real estate value blows up as those businesses default after 3 months of no traffic and the land sits idle. with these jobs gone, residential real estate also loses huge value. what happens to e.g. Las Vegas? - anyone who's levered up on commercial real estate basically gets annihilated as all of that value is going to plummet. - those who were employed and don't make enough via unemployment are going to have to split unemployment between car payments, rent, and food. landlords may be amenable to 3 month non-eviction. we will see their resolve once month 3 ends. and best of good luck getting your new job without a car in most of the US. now residential landlords are /also/ hurting. - above makes consumerism much more difficult for a large fraction of the population; retail down. shops close; commercial real estate is still less attractive, and now residential is hurting because people (still) can't make rent. - general market malaise means that previously in-trouble pensions (e.g. Illinois) are going to be even worse off. add up lost tax revenue + increased spending on services and you're looking at some serious trouble if those states don't get some attention from .gov. so, really, absent some pretty intense government intervention, i just don't see this lasting much longer than 3 months. in fact, i don't even know if you'll see the layered effects start to really show up until you're a few months in.