6 ms·

I don't see how this can be over in less than 3 months.

spookthesunset 7y ago
Based on what data? If you think society will tolerate this kind of lockdown for more than a few weeks, you need to rethink your stance. If we are locked up for 3 months like this you will have your doomsday scenario. Our entire supply chain will fall apart. People won’t get food, medicine, things that make them happy. Sporting events, social gatherings, etc. People will become depressed and kill themselves. People will go nuts and kill everybody around them. You’ll have a situation on your hands much, much worse than this virus. Much worse. People have lost their damn minds and stopped thinking rationally. Snap out it. Go on a damn walk. Nobody is gonna be locked down for three fucking months. If we actually are, I suggest stocking up on guns and ammo now because that will devolve into a doomsday scenario. One much worse than anything this virus can possibly dish out.
- AndrewKemendo 7y ago
  Based on what I'm seeing, it seems like that's exactly the path we're on in the US unfortunately.
  - spookthesunset 7y ago
    Based on what data?
    - evo_9 7y ago
      As a business owner I hope you are right, that this clears up in weeks not months; However it would be pretty irresponsible of me to take that line of thinking, no? The facts appear to be supporting the 3 month shutdown, they include: - The US Government has said, including the President, that this could last until August. Some expert think that's conservative. - A vaccine isn't likely for 12+ months. - Testing facilities are limited and will likely take 3-4 weeks for widespread roll-out. - We don't fully understand the dynamics of how the virus is spread. - Congress/Senate are readying a staggeringly large help package (800 BILLION); that relief is at least 2-3 weeks away and I would argue suggests the lock down is going to last well past 3-4 weeks (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/17/white-house-senate-republicans-coronavirus-aid-133732 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/17/white-house-senate-...).
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
    - AndrewKemendo 7y ago
      The fact that schools are currently closed in a growing number of districts for 4 weeks at minimum. That alone is going to cause wild downstream effects. There are a few reports of supply chains starting to slow down because of workers being sent home and people taking off to be with their kids.
    - vincentmarle 7y ago
      https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... August
- 2019-nCoV 7y ago
  People in Hubei are closing in on 3 months of lockdown. Other provinces not far behind. Are Americans really that uncivilised they cannot bear the thought of several months locked down in the comfort of their own homes?
  - spookthesunset 7y ago
    There is so much doomsday nonsense like your post I don’t know where to start. People have lost their god damn minds on the internet. Go outside and go on a walk. If you don’t understand why a 3 month country wide lockdown would be orders of magnitude more dangerous than this virus, you need to snap yourself out of the trance you are in. People have lost their minds around here.
    - arbitrary_name 7y ago
      Perhaps you have lost your cool a little? I am quite content to work from home, go hiking on the weekends and meet up with friends in open spaces as allowed by the lock down rules. I can arguably go skating, surfing, walking and much more. Its not ideal, but if it's required, I'll do it. We are not going to fall apart. Except for twitchy individuals like you, it seems...
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
      - listenallyall 7y ago
        super easy to say on Day 1 or 2 of the situation. tell me how you feel on Day 83.
    - yiyus 7y ago
      > Go outside and go on a walk. I cannot go outside for a walk. We are on state of alarm and the army is on the streets controlling that no one goes out to stop a pandemic that is killing many people and will kill many more.
  - koyote 7y ago
- scruple 7y ago
  You say that, but at the white house task force press conferences they're setting the signal pretty clearly. Reporter: "How long?" Trump: "July, August, maybe longer."
  - spookthesunset 7y ago
    Better go get guns if you believe that ‘cause a 3 month lockdown will be much, much, much, much worse than the virus. This ain’t gonna be more than a few weeks tops. People have lost their damn minds. Go outside and get some fresh air.
    - senordevnyc 7y ago
      No one seems to be losing their minds here but you. I’ve been stuck at home for over a week now, in an NYC apartment, with a 4 year old. I get out once or twice a day to walk in the park. It’s not ideal, but I can do it. No one is going to be rioting in the streets. Get a grip.
    - empath75 7y ago
      You’ll change your tune in about two weeks as hospitals start to fill and people you care about start dying.
- truculent 7y ago
  Maybe this data? https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...
- empath75 7y ago
  If we aren’t locked down for 6 months, probably more than 2 million Americans will die from coronavirus his year.
maximente 7y ago
what do you mean by "over"? i don't see the ability to do quarantine style lockdown for >3 months myself, if that's what you meant. there are a lot of 2nd (or >1th) order effects that i suspect will mean that people give up the ghost on flattening the curve. here are some i'm imagining myself; others probably know way more than me: - the local restaurants are probably well on their way to having shut down. the commercial real estate they rented or owned has way lower prospects of getting picked up. so commercial landlords are hurting. - ditto above for tourism towns, whose commercial real estate value blows up as those businesses default after 3 months of no traffic and the land sits idle. with these jobs gone, residential real estate also loses huge value. what happens to e.g. Las Vegas? - anyone who's levered up on commercial real estate basically gets annihilated as all of that value is going to plummet. - those who were employed and don't make enough via unemployment are going to have to split unemployment between car payments, rent, and food. landlords may be amenable to 3 month non-eviction. we will see their resolve once month 3 ends. and best of good luck getting your new job without a car in most of the US. now residential landlords are /also/ hurting. - above makes consumerism much more difficult for a large fraction of the population; retail down. shops close; commercial real estate is still less attractive, and now residential is hurting because people (still) can't make rent. - general market malaise means that previously in-trouble pensions (e.g. Illinois) are going to be even worse off. add up lost tax revenue + increased spending on services and you're looking at some serious trouble if those states don't get some attention from .gov. so, really, absent some pretty intense government intervention, i just don't see this lasting much longer than 3 months. in fact, i don't even know if you'll see the layered effects start to really show up until you're a few months in.
- ma2rten 7y ago
  So?
  - spookthesunset 7y ago
    Thank god people like you aren’t calling the shots.
    - 7y ago

Based on what data? If you think society will tolerate this kind of lockdown for more than a few weeks, you need to rethink your stance. If we are locked up for 3 months like this you will have your doomsday scenario. Our entire supply chain will fall apart. People won’t get food, medicine, things that make them happy. Sporting events, social gatherings, etc. People will become depressed and kill themselves. People will go nuts and kill everybody around them. You’ll have a situation on your hands much, much worse than this virus. Much worse. People have lost their damn minds and stopped thinking rationally. Snap out it. Go on a damn walk. Nobody is gonna be locked down for three fucking months. If we actually are, I suggest stocking up on guns and ammo now because that will devolve into a doomsday scenario. One much worse than anything this virus can possibly dish out.

AndrewKemendo 7y ago
Based on what I'm seeing, it seems like that's exactly the path we're on in the US unfortunately.
- spookthesunset 7y ago
  Based on what data?
  - evo_9 7y ago
    As a business owner I hope you are right, that this clears up in weeks not months; However it would be pretty irresponsible of me to take that line of thinking, no? The facts appear to be supporting the 3 month shutdown, they include: - The US Government has said, including the President, that this could last until August. Some expert think that's conservative. - A vaccine isn't likely for 12+ months. - Testing facilities are limited and will likely take 3-4 weeks for widespread roll-out. - We don't fully understand the dynamics of how the virus is spread. - Congress/Senate are readying a staggeringly large help package (800 BILLION); that relief is at least 2-3 weeks away and I would argue suggests the lock down is going to last well past 3-4 weeks (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/17/white-house-senate-republicans-coronavirus-aid-133732 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/17/white-house-senate-...).
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
  - AndrewKemendo 7y ago
    The fact that schools are currently closed in a growing number of districts for 4 weeks at minimum. That alone is going to cause wild downstream effects. There are a few reports of supply chains starting to slow down because of workers being sent home and people taking off to be with their kids.
  - vincentmarle 7y ago
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... August
2019-nCoV 7y ago
People in Hubei are closing in on 3 months of lockdown. Other provinces not far behind. Are Americans really that uncivilised they cannot bear the thought of several months locked down in the comfort of their own homes?
- spookthesunset 7y ago
  There is so much doomsday nonsense like your post I don’t know where to start. People have lost their god damn minds on the internet. Go outside and go on a walk. If you don’t understand why a 3 month country wide lockdown would be orders of magnitude more dangerous than this virus, you need to snap yourself out of the trance you are in. People have lost their minds around here.
  - arbitrary_name 7y ago
    Perhaps you have lost your cool a little? I am quite content to work from home, go hiking on the weekends and meet up with friends in open spaces as allowed by the lock down rules. I can arguably go skating, surfing, walking and much more. Its not ideal, but if it's required, I'll do it. We are not going to fall apart. Except for twitchy individuals like you, it seems...
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - listenallyall 7y ago
      super easy to say on Day 1 or 2 of the situation. tell me how you feel on Day 83.
  - yiyus 7y ago
    > Go outside and go on a walk. I cannot go outside for a walk. We are on state of alarm and the army is on the streets controlling that no one goes out to stop a pandemic that is killing many people and will kill many more.
- koyote 7y ago
scruple 7y ago
You say that, but at the white house task force press conferences they're setting the signal pretty clearly. Reporter: "How long?" Trump: "July, August, maybe longer."
- spookthesunset 7y ago
  Better go get guns if you believe that ‘cause a 3 month lockdown will be much, much, much, much worse than the virus. This ain’t gonna be more than a few weeks tops. People have lost their damn minds. Go outside and get some fresh air.
  - senordevnyc 7y ago
    No one seems to be losing their minds here but you. I’ve been stuck at home for over a week now, in an NYC apartment, with a 4 year old. I get out once or twice a day to walk in the park. It’s not ideal, but I can do it. No one is going to be rioting in the streets. Get a grip.
  - empath75 7y ago
    You’ll change your tune in about two weeks as hospitals start to fill and people you care about start dying.
truculent 7y ago
Maybe this data? https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...
empath75 7y ago
If we aren’t locked down for 6 months, probably more than 2 million Americans will die from coronavirus his year.

maximente 7y ago

what do you mean by "over"? i don't see the ability to do quarantine style lockdown for >3 months myself, if that's what you meant. there are a lot of 2nd (or >1th) order effects that i suspect will mean that people give up the ghost on flattening the curve. here are some i'm imagining myself; others probably know way more than me: - the local restaurants are probably well on their way to having shut down. the commercial real estate they rented or owned has way lower prospects of getting picked up. so commercial landlords are hurting. - ditto above for tourism towns, whose commercial real estate value blows up as those businesses default after 3 months of no traffic and the land sits idle. with these jobs gone, residential real estate also loses huge value. what happens to e.g. Las Vegas? - anyone who's levered up on commercial real estate basically gets annihilated as all of that value is going to plummet. - those who were employed and don't make enough via unemployment are going to have to split unemployment between car payments, rent, and food. landlords may be amenable to 3 month non-eviction. we will see their resolve once month 3 ends. and best of good luck getting your new job without a car in most of the US. now residential landlords are /also/ hurting. - above makes consumerism much more difficult for a large fraction of the population; retail down. shops close; commercial real estate is still less attractive, and now residential is hurting because people (still) can't make rent. - general market malaise means that previously in-trouble pensions (e.g. Illinois) are going to be even worse off. add up lost tax revenue + increased spending on services and you're looking at some serious trouble if those states don't get some attention from .gov. so, really, absent some pretty intense government intervention, i just don't see this lasting much longer than 3 months. in fact, i don't even know if you'll see the layered effects start to really show up until you're a few months in.

ma2rten 7y ago
So?
- spookthesunset 7y ago
  Thank god people like you aren’t calling the shots.
  - 7y ago