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In the current social climate (i.e, false positives perhaps being somewhat less likely, especially in a contrived situation like a cruise ship full of at risk p

In the current social climate (i.e, false positives perhaps being somewhat less likely, especially in a contrived situation like a cruise ship full of at risk patients) if we assume that the subject truly was infected, cleared, then infected again in such a short time window, what would that mean for all current containment strategies?

Blahah 7y ago
It essentially means we need a vaccine to create immunity at scale, and will need to have fairly strict measures in place until that can happen.
- the_af 7y ago
  I don't understand how a vaccine would work if prior exposure to the virus doesn't prevent re-infection :/ Honest question, no snark intended.
  - mjw1007 7y ago
    Naively, if immunity from prior exposure lasts for a few months, then we might reasonably hope for a vaccine whose effects last for a few months. I suppose if that happened people would get revaccinated frequently.
    - the_af 7y ago
      Ok, but according to the article the man tested positive on Feb 14, then got cleared on March 2 (in Tokyo), returned home and relapsed very few days later. If there are no mistakes in the resting (or reporting), that's not even a few months of immunity...
  - jshevek 7y ago
    Well I think it wouldn't be an 'inactivated' or 'attenuated' vaccine, but we have other vaccine types designed to trick the body into developing the readiness for an immune response. I don't know if they could work for this type of disease. Edit: I glanced at vaccines on Wikipedia, read the following on conjugate vaccines. Maybe we will develop a new technology to do something similar with viruses, training the immune system to recognize the virus by linking it to a toxin? >Conjugate—certain bacteria have polysaccharide outer coats that are poorly immunogenic. By linking these outer coats to proteins (e.g., toxins), the immune system can be led to recognize the polysaccharide as if it were a protein antigen. This approach is used in the Haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine.[41]
    - the_af 7y ago
      Interesting, and thanks for replying. I realize I know very little about vaccines beyond the elementary-school-level basics (even though my brother is an immunologist... maybe I should ask him).
  - ac29 7y ago
    This is a single case in an elderly person. He may have poor immune system function - that doesn't mean a vaccine wouldn't be effective in the rest of the population.
    - the_af 7y ago
      Yes, I understand this. I also understand this may be a mistake in testing for this specific individual. I was wondering about the effectiveness of vaccines in the hypothetical scenario posited by the OP, "what if you can be reinfected after cured?".
- jshevek 7y ago
  If prior exposure to the virus itself won't give a person immunity, I would expect it would be much more difficult to create a vaccine to grant immunity. I wonder if the 18 month vaccine timeline I have heard mention would be affected.
  - Blahah 7y ago
    We have never successfully created a vaccine against a coronavirus before, so this is new territory. On the other hand, we have new tools like the RNA vaccine being produced by Moderna which doesn't work like a traditional vaccine and so might be more effective. Ultimately we won't know until we try.
  - jacobwilliamroy 7y ago
    Nano machines! Buy a proprietary immune system and let a single corporation control your health for the rest of your life!
- tempestn 7y ago
  Another alternative to immunity at scale would be to have sufficiently strict measures to reduce R0 to below 1, so the virus dies out. China appears to have managed this. If it could be done near globally, it's possible the remaining outbreaks could be contained.
all2 7y ago
Containment is moot in this case. Quarantine only works when immunity or absence of infection vectors (infected individuals, individuals still in a shedding state, surfaces or aerosols) is the outcome.
- patrec 7y ago
  > Containment is moot in this case Please be very careful when writing such things. Containment has already been proven to work even with almost 100k known infected, now down to basically zero new infections. The new cases in China seem to be imported from abroad now.
catalogia 7y ago
Without knowing how common reinfection is, it means little. For all we know at this point, the vast majority of people might resist reinfection and this guy is a fluke. That wouldn't be unheard of either. Chicken pox is almost always something people get only once. In rare cases, some people get it more than once.

Blahah 7y ago

It essentially means we need a vaccine to create immunity at scale, and will need to have fairly strict measures in place until that can happen.

the_af 7y ago
I don't understand how a vaccine would work if prior exposure to the virus doesn't prevent re-infection :/ Honest question, no snark intended.
- mjw1007 7y ago
  Naively, if immunity from prior exposure lasts for a few months, then we might reasonably hope for a vaccine whose effects last for a few months. I suppose if that happened people would get revaccinated frequently.
  - the_af 7y ago
    Ok, but according to the article the man tested positive on Feb 14, then got cleared on March 2 (in Tokyo), returned home and relapsed very few days later. If there are no mistakes in the resting (or reporting), that's not even a few months of immunity...
- jshevek 7y ago
  Well I think it wouldn't be an 'inactivated' or 'attenuated' vaccine, but we have other vaccine types designed to trick the body into developing the readiness for an immune response. I don't know if they could work for this type of disease. Edit: I glanced at vaccines on Wikipedia, read the following on conjugate vaccines. Maybe we will develop a new technology to do something similar with viruses, training the immune system to recognize the virus by linking it to a toxin? >Conjugate—certain bacteria have polysaccharide outer coats that are poorly immunogenic. By linking these outer coats to proteins (e.g., toxins), the immune system can be led to recognize the polysaccharide as if it were a protein antigen. This approach is used in the Haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine.[41]
  - the_af 7y ago
    Interesting, and thanks for replying. I realize I know very little about vaccines beyond the elementary-school-level basics (even though my brother is an immunologist... maybe I should ask him).
- ac29 7y ago
  This is a single case in an elderly person. He may have poor immune system function - that doesn't mean a vaccine wouldn't be effective in the rest of the population.
  - the_af 7y ago
    Yes, I understand this. I also understand this may be a mistake in testing for this specific individual. I was wondering about the effectiveness of vaccines in the hypothetical scenario posited by the OP, "what if you can be reinfected after cured?".
jshevek 7y ago
If prior exposure to the virus itself won't give a person immunity, I would expect it would be much more difficult to create a vaccine to grant immunity. I wonder if the 18 month vaccine timeline I have heard mention would be affected.
- Blahah 7y ago
  We have never successfully created a vaccine against a coronavirus before, so this is new territory. On the other hand, we have new tools like the RNA vaccine being produced by Moderna which doesn't work like a traditional vaccine and so might be more effective. Ultimately we won't know until we try.
- jacobwilliamroy 7y ago
  Nano machines! Buy a proprietary immune system and let a single corporation control your health for the rest of your life!
tempestn 7y ago
Another alternative to immunity at scale would be to have sufficiently strict measures to reduce R0 to below 1, so the virus dies out. China appears to have managed this. If it could be done near globally, it's possible the remaining outbreaks could be contained.

all2 7y ago

Containment is moot in this case. Quarantine only works when immunity or absence of infection vectors (infected individuals, individuals still in a shedding state, surfaces or aerosols) is the outcome.

patrec 7y ago
> Containment is moot in this case Please be very careful when writing such things. Containment has already been proven to work even with almost 100k known infected, now down to basically zero new infections. The new cases in China seem to be imported from abroad now.

catalogia 7y ago

Without knowing how common reinfection is, it means little. For all we know at this point, the vast majority of people might resist reinfection and this guy is a fluke. That wouldn't be unheard of either. Chicken pox is almost always something people get only once. In rare cases, some people get it more than once.