4 ms·

That was the same logic in 2008 yet we're there again. What's preventing hyperinflation at this point?

Bombthecat 7y ago
Nothing, i think it's impossible to avoid it anymore.
kamarg 7y ago
My understanding of it is that we basically outsourced our inflation from the 2008 QE rounds to other countries. This seems to be a feature of being the reserve currency of the world. Presumably that would be the same thing that prevents hyperinflation this time around.
JumpCrisscross 7y ago
> What's preventing hyperinflation at this point? Crashing money velocity and vanishing credit. Inflation is a function of money supply and money velocity. Money supply is central bank money plus private money (e.g. checking account deposits) plus credit. Demand destruction, like what we're seeing now, causes money velocity to plummet. That affects lending, which causes credit to plummet. (If we got into a credit crisis, it would cause private money to plummet.) The increase in central bank money simply paled, even in 2008, compared to the destruction of credit and reduction of money velocity. As such, we actually experienced deflation while the central-bank money supply expanded. Because the total money supply, relative to the economy, contracted.
throw0101a 7y ago
> What's preventing hyperinflation at this point? To get technical: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_lower_bound https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_lower_bound * https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/opinion/the-case-for-permanent-stimulus-wonkish.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/opinion/the-case-for-perm... * https://archive.is/Z2TMK https://archive.is/Z2TMK
wefarrell 7y ago
Tanking commodities prices.
AnthonyMouse 7y ago
How are people concerned with hyperinflation when we should be expecting deflation here? Hyperinflation is what happens when banana republics print their entire money supply a hundred times over every year. How much inflation did we get from QE in 2008? In 2009 the rate of "inflation" was negative, and the Fed has been hitting the low side of their low inflation targets for more than a decade since, despite more rounds of QE and maintaining historically low interest rates. Meanwhile the entire world is hoarding US dollars (which causes deflation) because of this coronavirus. The number of dollars we would have to print to unintentionally get hyperinflation right now is difficult to even imagine. We could print trillions of dollars and be lucky to get regular inflation.
- LeoTinnitus 7y ago
  jesus while I realize that's a generalization that makes me feel a bit better. Also I had no clue other countries hoarded US dollars like that.

Nothing, i think it's impossible to avoid it anymore.

My understanding of it is that we basically outsourced our inflation from the 2008 QE rounds to other countries. This seems to be a feature of being the reserve currency of the world. Presumably that would be the same thing that prevents hyperinflation this time around.

JumpCrisscross 7y ago

> What's preventing hyperinflation at this point? Crashing money velocity and vanishing credit. Inflation is a function of money supply and money velocity. Money supply is central bank money plus private money (e.g. checking account deposits) plus credit. Demand destruction, like what we're seeing now, causes money velocity to plummet. That affects lending, which causes credit to plummet. (If we got into a credit crisis, it would cause private money to plummet.) The increase in central bank money simply paled, even in 2008, compared to the destruction of credit and reduction of money velocity. As such, we actually experienced deflation while the central-bank money supply expanded. Because the total money supply, relative to the economy, contracted.

throw0101a 7y ago

> What's preventing hyperinflation at this point? To get technical: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_lower_bound https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_lower_bound * https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/opinion/the-case-for-permanent-stimulus-wonkish.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/opinion/the-case-for-perm... * https://archive.is/Z2TMK https://archive.is/Z2TMK

wefarrell 7y ago

Tanking commodities prices.

AnthonyMouse 7y ago

How are people concerned with hyperinflation when we should be expecting deflation here? Hyperinflation is what happens when banana republics print their entire money supply a hundred times over every year. How much inflation did we get from QE in 2008? In 2009 the rate of "inflation" was negative, and the Fed has been hitting the low side of their low inflation targets for more than a decade since, despite more rounds of QE and maintaining historically low interest rates. Meanwhile the entire world is hoarding US dollars (which causes deflation) because of this coronavirus. The number of dollars we would have to print to unintentionally get hyperinflation right now is difficult to even imagine. We could print trillions of dollars and be lucky to get regular inflation.

LeoTinnitus 7y ago
jesus while I realize that's a generalization that makes me feel a bit better. Also I had no clue other countries hoarded US dollars like that.