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Given the properties of the virus--droplet aerosol borne, long incubation period, asymptomatic contagion, high infection rate, many asymptomatic carriers--I don
by logfromblammo 7y ago
Given the properties of the virus--droplet aerosol borne, long incubation period, asymptomatic contagion, high infection rate, many asymptomatic carriers--I don't think there is any reasonable (or unreasonable) government policy that would have kept it from becoming a global pandemic.
Better containment would have given countries some extra time to bring any mothballed reserve healthcare capacity to ready status, but I think this was essentially unpreventable. Absent any evidence of actual intent to spread a virulent disease worldwide, other countries don't really have any grounds to be angry at China, just for having 1/5 of all possible first-infected people, and getting the unlucky draw this time.
This one likely came from one bat contacting one human in Wuhan. The next one could come from Chennai, or Kinshasa, or Lagos, or London, or Dubai, or Chicago--any place that has humans living in it. Unfortunately, scapegoat culture exists worldwide. Bad news historically has had an abysmal track record with respect to retaliation against messengers, whistle-blowers, and bystanders. As long as someone can get punished for a disaster happening on their watch, the containable screw-ups will continue to be covered up. If the cover-up fails, the person organizing it probably would have been punished anyway.
Did someone in China attempt a cover-up? Maybe. Is that all of China's fault, as a nation? Only insofar as China's government, like many other governments with worldwide political influence, has a secrecy culture within it that punishes uncontrolled release of information that is damaging, or even just embarrassing, to the state.
Let's throw this revelation onto the pile for the post-mortem analysis, after the pandemic threat has lessened, to learn a lesson from it. That will likely take the form of a UN resolution, that will probably be vetoed. None of the major powers will want to reduce their ability to crack down on leakers and whistle-blowers. There is no solution I can formulate now that is compatible with large nationalistic governments existing on this planet.
- loyukfai 7y ago>This one likely came from one bat contacting one human in Wuhan. AFAIK, most researchers believe that there is an intermediate between the virus-carrying bat and patient zero. Also, this is not the first time the wild animal market is suspected being the place the crossover happened. This one sounds strikingly similar to the 2003 SARS. >Did someone in China attempt a cover-up? Maybe. Is that all of China's fault, as a nation? Only insofar as China's government, like many other governments with worldwide political influence, has a secrecy culture within it that punishes uncontrolled release of information that is damaging, or even just embarrassing, to the state. In western societies, there is the concept of free press, which may alleviate this issue. Cheers.
- logfromblammo 7y agoFreedom of the press prevents punishment for open publication of facts, but it does nothing to protect the sources for those journalists. For all the lip service given to whistle-blower protections, the whistle-blowers get punished anyway. Every time. It is always career-suicide.
- loyukfai 7y agoSad but true. Individually, sacrifices or delayed justice are common. As a community and society, let's hope they pay off in the long run. Cheers.
- yibg 7y agoIn theory yes. But how long did western societies sit on the virus before doing anything, even with a couple of months of early warning time? Yes there wasn't any government attempt to cover things up, but not like information was free flowing either.
- loyukfai 7y agoIn this case, direct comparison between countries' responses is not so practical because the Western countries don't have the SARS experience, which led to the seemingly out of proportion responses like here in Hong Kong from the beginning. For instance, a significant portion of our medical staffs went on strike when our pro-PRC government officials refused to clamp down the borders, and we were part of the gang who scooped up face masks worldwide. Also, WHO seem to be downplaying the risk all along until recently. The principle of ceteris paribus needs to be considered.
- yibg 7y agoI don't disagree with anything you said. I was just pointing out that having free press while a great thing didn't seem to be much of a positive factor in handling this pandemic in western societies. Information was either ambiguous, ignored or the significance severely down played. All of what's happening in Europe or the US was predicted and warned about. Just not much was done about it.
- jyounker 7y ago> This one likely came from one bat contacting one human in Wuhan It's just as likely that it comes from pangolins: https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-03/sri-tcc031720.php https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-03/sri-tcc03172...