3 ms·
This reflects the opinions shared by Michael Osterholm, Amesh Adalja, and Nicholas Christakis: a final case mortality of ~0.7%. But just to highlight the point,
by rojobuffalo 7y ago
This reflects the opinions shared by Michael Osterholm, Amesh Adalja, and Nicholas Christakis: a final case mortality of ~0.7%. But just to highlight the point, that's on a strong assumption that critical cases receive proper medical attention. I don't think that's a safe assumption for the outbreak in the United States.
- petre 7y agoNow it's really not the time to speculate with numbers that could downplay the risks. We'll see in a few years. 0.\d+% could be someone we love. Keep safe. Prevent if you can.
- rojobuffalo 7y agoI'm just quoting experts. But I agree with your point. Only one of them stated that figure with "confidence", but he also was clearly motivated to downplay the risk because he was worried about panic. My intuition is that a final case mortality < 1.5% would be towards a "best case" outcome; and we should expect worse.