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Currently, we have 7 total reported deaths from the cruise ship and 696 confirmed cases. Seeing that it's been a long while since the outbreak, let's assume all
by gnulinux 7y ago
Currently, we have 7 total reported deaths from the cruise ship and 696 confirmed cases. Seeing that it's been a long while since the outbreak, let's assume all current cases will survive; this puts us to 1% CFR. But note that Cruise Ship had a higher average age than public, so assuming you'll receive all the medical care you need, ~1% CFR seems to be a good approximate upper-bound estimate.
- malandrew 7y agoIIRC all or almost all of those 7 were over 80.
- gnulinux 7y agoI heard "all over 80" on HN and reddit multiple times as well, but could not confirm. Regardless, Italy's official average age of death is 81, so it wouldn't be surprising.
- Erikun 7y ago6 in the 70-79 bracket and one in 80-89, but 70-79 was also the biggest group. https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_crui...
- nostromo 7y agoThe majority of people on the cruise ship were older and it's not at all representative of the real population.
- gnulinux 7y agoThat's why I said an "upper-bound" approximation. As in, CFR for general population is likely below 1%.