5 ms·

Perhaps US eat-out culture will die, and those who worked those jobs will just have to find some other means by which to negotiate value from the economy.

trianglem 7y ago
But there’s just so many of them. Between the hotel and restaurant industry we’re talking about more than 20 million people.
- xbmcuser 7y ago
  People don't realise that many of these business will be dead and wont come back after. The knock on effect will go up the supply chain. For example lobster trappers, fishers, ranchers, farmers bulk of their income comes from supplying to restaurants if restaurants are not buying prices will come down which will affect them further.
- mml 7y ago
  Having seen it first hand, the vast majority of those 20 million people are living check to check. even missing a few shifts puts them on the brink of homelessness. this is going to be very, very bad.
  - ericd 7y ago
    I’m pretty sure the police departments and judges aren’t going to be allowing evictions right now.
throwaway5752 7y ago
Maybe, given the financial shock, no other means are readily available. Maybe, given the lack of means to negotiate value from the economy the lose the ability to buy food or pay for their shelter. Maybe in that case they either band with other people unable to negotiate this value, abandon respect for the law, and take that value by force. Maybe they do not do this, and are forced into situations that put them in greater contact with other people and makes the pandemic worse.
aniro 7y ago
Remarkable how quickly you were able to dehumanize the economic impact on millions of lives and yet simultaneously anthropomorphize the “economy”. A single sentence.
- threatofrain 7y ago
  The restaurant industry is brittle and consolidating, and the the American middle class might not be strong enough to support it anymore. Recent events just magnify the weaknesses of the existing system. We could talk about things like the expansion of government programs, or we could talk about your theory of how I'm stripping people's humanities away. You would also presume quite poorly if you thought I haven't worked in the food industry. If you have something interesting to offer to the scenario of collapsing American restaurants, go ahead. Such as more discussion on dehumanization.
  - sgrove 7y ago
    I'd recommend keeping your first two sentences (which are interesting), and deleting the rest of the comment (which just continues an inflammatory line).
  - mattsfrey 7y ago
    The assertion that restaurants failing in the wake of the government mandating them to close in response to a once in a lifetime pandemic is evidence of them being unviable as an industry is utterly laughable.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
  - wozniacki 7y ago
    Whats more remarkable is that no one has made a peep about RENTAL PAYMENT DEFERRALS or SUSPENSIONS to even COMMERCIAL LANDLORDS of APARTMENTS / SINGLE FAMILY HOMES yet somehow sit-down restaurants and their health are a top concern. These priorities are lop-sided at best. Restaurants are not a critical component of your basic sustenance. They never were, in the course of human history. Heavy dependence on them for ones immediate sustenance needs is a very recent development. On the other hand, shelter is.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
standardUser 7y ago
Not if I can help it. I'm ordering delivery constantly, and as soon as restaurants reopen my ass will be in a seat every night of the week to support what is personally my favorite industry. And I'll be tipping extra.
- threatofrain 7y ago
  I would argue that an interesting intervention has to come from something more, because the restaurant industry has been suffering terribly and consolidating already, perhaps due to an increasingly unhealthy middle class.
  - standardUser 7y ago
    How exactly has the industry been "suffering terribly"? In places I frequent (SF Bay Area, NYC) I see hundreds of long-term restaurants persisting, plus a constant stream of brand new places, all in the face of increasing minimum wages and other employer mandates/regulations. I'd also argue that the quality of both food and service have never been better. I'm not saying you're wrong (I have no clue), but it feels to me like I've been living in a golden age of eating out (expensive though it may be).
    - lemax 7y ago
      Expensive as they may be, restaurants have terrible margins. James Beard nominated, objectively successful places with >$1M gross are netting the annual income of someone who washes dishes [1]. They are operating on a fine line and I would imagine most of these places do not have the cash to weather through even a minor hitch in business. https://www.eater.com/2020/3/9/21166993/how-much-to-run-a-restaurant-cost-mei-mei-boston-finances https://www.eater.com/2020/3/9/21166993/how-much-to-run-a-re...
bowmessage 7y ago
That's not exactly a realistic outlook on what will ultimately be a temporary situation.
- coliveira 7y ago
  It all depends on how long it is temporary. Current predictions are 2-3 months, which I think it is already too much time for most restaurants.
  - bowmessage 7y ago
    As always, new restaurants will take the place of shuttered ones. It won't be easy, but "eating out" as a practice will not disappear!
  - fhars 7y ago
    Germany's Robert Koch Institute just spoke of "up to two years" today... (Near the bottom of the page if you can read German: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/coronavirus-deutschland-rki-101.html https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/coronavirus-deutschland-rki... )
    - Mediterraneo10 7y ago
      That “up to two years” applies to how long it would take for 60–70% of people to get the virus if you are aiming for a “herd immunity” scenario. It doesn’t claim that the present lockdown will last two years.
      - fhars 7y ago
        Oh, the first version of the text read differently, there is a correction at the bottom.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 7y ago
    NYT opinion piece talks in terms of 3 or 4 "waves" of social distancing spread over 1-2 years. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-social-distancing-effect.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-socia...
Ensorceled 7y ago
> find some other means by which to negotiate value from the economy Do people actually talk like this about the livelihood of millions of people in real life, or is an affectation for HN?
- cool_dude85 7y ago
  Sure, plenty of people do. Head down to the local bow tie store, or visit your nearest seasteading ship and you'll find that almost everyone talks this way. Just be careful not to violate the NAP or you'll be blown away by someone's rocket launcher.
- true_religion 7y ago
  It’s simple emotional distancing. For many, talking about sad things makes them irrational or depressed, so if it has to be discussed it will be done so in academic terms. The less conversant you are with the actual academia, the more contrived the terms you invent will be. I doubt many did more than undergrad business or economic here.

trianglem 7y ago

But there’s just so many of them. Between the hotel and restaurant industry we’re talking about more than 20 million people.

xbmcuser 7y ago
People don't realise that many of these business will be dead and wont come back after. The knock on effect will go up the supply chain. For example lobster trappers, fishers, ranchers, farmers bulk of their income comes from supplying to restaurants if restaurants are not buying prices will come down which will affect them further.
mml 7y ago
Having seen it first hand, the vast majority of those 20 million people are living check to check. even missing a few shifts puts them on the brink of homelessness. this is going to be very, very bad.
- ericd 7y ago
  I’m pretty sure the police departments and judges aren’t going to be allowing evictions right now.

throwaway5752 7y ago

Maybe, given the financial shock, no other means are readily available. Maybe, given the lack of means to negotiate value from the economy the lose the ability to buy food or pay for their shelter. Maybe in that case they either band with other people unable to negotiate this value, abandon respect for the law, and take that value by force. Maybe they do not do this, and are forced into situations that put them in greater contact with other people and makes the pandemic worse.

aniro 7y ago

Remarkable how quickly you were able to dehumanize the economic impact on millions of lives and yet simultaneously anthropomorphize the “economy”. A single sentence.

threatofrain 7y ago
The restaurant industry is brittle and consolidating, and the the American middle class might not be strong enough to support it anymore. Recent events just magnify the weaknesses of the existing system. We could talk about things like the expansion of government programs, or we could talk about your theory of how I'm stripping people's humanities away. You would also presume quite poorly if you thought I haven't worked in the food industry. If you have something interesting to offer to the scenario of collapsing American restaurants, go ahead. Such as more discussion on dehumanization.
- sgrove 7y ago
  I'd recommend keeping your first two sentences (which are interesting), and deleting the rest of the comment (which just continues an inflammatory line).
- mattsfrey 7y ago
  The assertion that restaurants failing in the wake of the government mandating them to close in response to a once in a lifetime pandemic is evidence of them being unviable as an industry is utterly laughable.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- wozniacki 7y ago
  Whats more remarkable is that no one has made a peep about RENTAL PAYMENT DEFERRALS or SUSPENSIONS to even COMMERCIAL LANDLORDS of APARTMENTS / SINGLE FAMILY HOMES yet somehow sit-down restaurants and their health are a top concern. These priorities are lop-sided at best. Restaurants are not a critical component of your basic sustenance. They never were, in the course of human history. Heavy dependence on them for ones immediate sustenance needs is a very recent development. On the other hand, shelter is.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

standardUser 7y ago

Not if I can help it. I'm ordering delivery constantly, and as soon as restaurants reopen my ass will be in a seat every night of the week to support what is personally my favorite industry. And I'll be tipping extra.

threatofrain 7y ago
I would argue that an interesting intervention has to come from something more, because the restaurant industry has been suffering terribly and consolidating already, perhaps due to an increasingly unhealthy middle class.
- standardUser 7y ago
  How exactly has the industry been "suffering terribly"? In places I frequent (SF Bay Area, NYC) I see hundreds of long-term restaurants persisting, plus a constant stream of brand new places, all in the face of increasing minimum wages and other employer mandates/regulations. I'd also argue that the quality of both food and service have never been better. I'm not saying you're wrong (I have no clue), but it feels to me like I've been living in a golden age of eating out (expensive though it may be).
  - lemax 7y ago
    Expensive as they may be, restaurants have terrible margins. James Beard nominated, objectively successful places with >$1M gross are netting the annual income of someone who washes dishes [1]. They are operating on a fine line and I would imagine most of these places do not have the cash to weather through even a minor hitch in business. https://www.eater.com/2020/3/9/21166993/how-much-to-run-a-restaurant-cost-mei-mei-boston-finances https://www.eater.com/2020/3/9/21166993/how-much-to-run-a-re...

bowmessage 7y ago

That's not exactly a realistic outlook on what will ultimately be a temporary situation.

coliveira 7y ago
It all depends on how long it is temporary. Current predictions are 2-3 months, which I think it is already too much time for most restaurants.
- bowmessage 7y ago
  As always, new restaurants will take the place of shuttered ones. It won't be easy, but "eating out" as a practice will not disappear!
- fhars 7y ago
  Germany's Robert Koch Institute just spoke of "up to two years" today... (Near the bottom of the page if you can read German: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/coronavirus-deutschland-rki-101.html https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/coronavirus-deutschland-rki... )
  - Mediterraneo10 7y ago
    That “up to two years” applies to how long it would take for 60–70% of people to get the virus if you are aiming for a “herd immunity” scenario. It doesn’t claim that the present lockdown will last two years.
    - fhars 7y ago
      Oh, the first version of the text read differently, there is a correction at the bottom.
- PaulDavisThe1st 7y ago
  NYT opinion piece talks in terms of 3 or 4 "waves" of social distancing spread over 1-2 years. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-social-distancing-effect.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-socia...

Ensorceled 7y ago

> find some other means by which to negotiate value from the economy Do people actually talk like this about the livelihood of millions of people in real life, or is an affectation for HN?

cool_dude85 7y ago
Sure, plenty of people do. Head down to the local bow tie store, or visit your nearest seasteading ship and you'll find that almost everyone talks this way. Just be careful not to violate the NAP or you'll be blown away by someone's rocket launcher.
true_religion 7y ago
It’s simple emotional distancing. For many, talking about sad things makes them irrational or depressed, so if it has to be discussed it will be done so in academic terms. The less conversant you are with the actual academia, the more contrived the terms you invent will be. I doubt many did more than undergrad business or economic here.