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You're comparing a virus that early on was reported as 3-4% to one that early on was reported as 0.4%. The cruise ship and South Korea are probably closest to
by bcrosby95 7y ago
You're comparing a virus that early on was reported as 3-4% to one that early on was reported as 0.4%.
The cruise ship and South Korea are probably closest to the true death rate of this virus. CFR in South Korea is currently around 0.8%. A common "educated guess" I see from people that work on this is its probably around 0.5%-1% assuming you can get the care needed for it.
- rojobuffalo 7y agoThis reflects the opinions shared by Michael Osterholm, Amesh Adalja, and Nicholas Christakis: a final case mortality of ~0.7%. But just to highlight the point, that's on a strong assumption that critical cases receive proper medical attention. I don't think that's a safe assumption for the outbreak in the United States.
- petre 7y agoNow it's really not the time to speculate with numbers that could downplay the risks. We'll see in a few years. 0.\d+% could be someone we love. Keep safe. Prevent if you can.
- rojobuffalo 7y agoI'm just quoting experts. But I agree with your point. Only one of them stated that figure with "confidence", but he also was clearly motivated to downplay the risk because he was worried about panic. My intuition is that a final case mortality < 1.5% would be towards a "best case" outcome; and we should expect worse.
- gnulinux 7y agoCurrently, we have 7 total reported deaths from the cruise ship and 696 confirmed cases. Seeing that it's been a long while since the outbreak, let's assume all current cases will survive; this puts us to 1% CFR. But note that Cruise Ship had a higher average age than public, so assuming you'll receive all the medical care you need, ~1% CFR seems to be a good approximate upper-bound estimate.
- malandrew 7y agoIIRC all or almost all of those 7 were over 80.
- gnulinux 7y agoI heard "all over 80" on HN and reddit multiple times as well, but could not confirm. Regardless, Italy's official average age of death is 81, so it wouldn't be surprising.
- Erikun 7y ago6 in the 70-79 bracket and one in 80-89, but 70-79 was also the biggest group. https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_crui...
- nostromo 7y agoThe majority of people on the cruise ship were older and it's not at all representative of the real population.
- gnulinux 7y agoThat's why I said an "upper-bound" approximation. As in, CFR for general population is likely below 1%.