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So people say, but China's infection numbers have not grown over the past 3 weeks. Nature doesn't do exponential curves; they're inherently unsustainable. It d

So people say, but China's infection numbers have not grown over the past 3 weeks. Nature doesn't do exponential curves; they're inherently unsustainable. It does logarithmic ones, which look exponential when you extrapolate from the right point on the graph.

mcbits 7y ago
Logistic, not logarithmic. Exponential and logarithmic are the same thing seen from different angles.
- leggomylibro 7y ago
  Thanks, but the point is that there is a horizontal asymptote and people are acting like there isn't. Two weeks ago I was constantly being told to just wait a couple of weeks, and I would see overflowing ICUs in the United States. But here we are, and the only places that are overflowing in the States (and most other nations) are the newsrooms.
  - softwaredoug 7y ago
    Every analysis I've seen puts that peak sometime in June.
  - tashi 7y ago
    I think it would be clearer if you'd stop trying to use math terms entirely. Your point isn't that there's a horizontal asymptote, because a virus that kills everyone on Earth could still have one or two of those. Your point is that you think the growth rate is going to slow quickly and you are basing that on intuition rather than math,right?
monocasa 7y ago
All of the data says we're still no where near the inflection point, and describing the short term as a exponential seems to be the best way to get the point across.
DennisP 7y ago
China is locked down hard. Every place you go, someone takes your temperature, and if you're feverish at all you're taken directly to a testing facility. If it turns out you have corona then you're in isolation until you're better. If we do the same in the U.S. then it'll be valid to expect similar results. It's certainly true that the virus will peak and decline naturally, but it does that because most of the population has been infected so it can't find fresh hosts. With 0.7% mortality that translates to over a million dead in the U.S.

mcbits 7y ago

Logistic, not logarithmic. Exponential and logarithmic are the same thing seen from different angles.

leggomylibro 7y ago
Thanks, but the point is that there is a horizontal asymptote and people are acting like there isn't. Two weeks ago I was constantly being told to just wait a couple of weeks, and I would see overflowing ICUs in the United States. But here we are, and the only places that are overflowing in the States (and most other nations) are the newsrooms.
- softwaredoug 7y ago
  Every analysis I've seen puts that peak sometime in June.
- tashi 7y ago
  I think it would be clearer if you'd stop trying to use math terms entirely. Your point isn't that there's a horizontal asymptote, because a virus that kills everyone on Earth could still have one or two of those. Your point is that you think the growth rate is going to slow quickly and you are basing that on intuition rather than math,right?

monocasa 7y ago

All of the data says we're still no where near the inflection point, and describing the short term as a exponential seems to be the best way to get the point across.

DennisP 7y ago

China is locked down hard. Every place you go, someone takes your temperature, and if you're feverish at all you're taken directly to a testing facility. If it turns out you have corona then you're in isolation until you're better. If we do the same in the U.S. then it'll be valid to expect similar results. It's certainly true that the virus will peak and decline naturally, but it does that because most of the population has been infected so it can't find fresh hosts. With 0.7% mortality that translates to over a million dead in the U.S.