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When China started the lockdown of Wuhan in Jan 23, they had 830 cases, and almost all concentrated in one location. Even with the hard lockdown they were at ov
by bildung 7y ago
When China started the lockdown of Wuhan in Jan 23, they had 830 cases, and almost all concentrated in one location. Even with the hard lockdown they were at over 70k infected people in Feb 16, before the infection rate slowed.
The US already is at over 5k, every state has infected people, and there is no proper lockdown to speak of in any state, only "strong recommendations". Assuming the same growth rate, the US will be at 440k infected in 24 days, but sadly without the reduced infection rate after April 12.
- azhenley 7y ago> every state has infected people West Virginia does not have any confirmed cases.
- jiveturkey 7y agocementing their status as the #1 flyover state
- roywiggins 7y agoThe chances they don't actually have any cases is so close to nil that it's negligible.
- makomk 7y agoWhen China started the lockdown of Wuhan on Jan 23, they may only have had 830 confirmed cases - but the number of confirmed cases was basically limited by the rate at which they could test people turning up at hospitals with severe symptoms and continued to be so for quite a while, from what I can tell. There's a more interesting figure buried in the WHO's final report from their joint mission to China: at some point, someone went and retested old samples taken from people in Wuhan with flu-like symptoms, 20 per week. They found no positives before January, 1 in the first week of January, and 3 in the second week. Those are not pretty numbers.
- wegs 7y agoBest estimates are that the US has roughly 90,000-150,000 cases right now. You multiply number of deaths by 1500. That assumes doubling every five days and 1% fatality.
- bildung 7y agoBut was this different to the US? I don't follow the US news that closely, but my impression was that testing capacity is only significantly growing since yesterday.