4 ms·
Not a sock-puppet. Where's the evidence isolations will flatten the curve and not just cause another spike of cases after isolation ends? Covid-19 isn't going
by 9uq34aofgh 7y ago
Not a sock-puppet.
Where's the evidence isolations will flatten the curve and not just cause another spike of cases after isolation ends?
Covid-19 isn't going to die out after a few weeks or months.
Deaths are coming from ages 70+ with severe pre-existing conditions during non-peak hospital conditions. This is normal and nothing to panic about.
Also, do R0 values of a virus change dramatically? I thought they were set based the number of non-vaccinated people who get infected...
- cliffy 7y ago"R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population." [0] If we hold R0 down long enough through change of behavior then we can absolutely flatten the curve. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
- 9uq34aofgh 7y agoThanks for the info on R0! From wiki "What these thresholds will do is determine whether a disease will die out (if R0 < 1) or whether it may become epidemic (if R0 > 1), but they generally can not compare different diseases." If seasonal flu (type-B?) has an R0 of ~1.3 can we reasonably call seasonal flu an epidemic? H1N1 (spanish and swine flu) is ~1.8 and had major outbreaks in 1918 and 2009. Is it realistic to expect we can sufficiently influence covid-19 using NPIs to achieve R0 < 1?