6 ms·

China's monthly infectious disease report numbers had 1.71m cases of infectious disease in December 2019, compared to only like ~700k in December 2018. Interest

• ajross 7y ago
  Cite for that? While the PRC trying to suppress evidence of an outbreak is totally plausible, a 1M undercount of COVID-19 cases in one month just doesn't match the data on the ground. Something like that would have run rampant across asia by now. Where are they hiding all the bodies? Sorry, but this sounds like a mixed up fact, or a conspiracy rumor.
  • ceedan 7y ago
    Dec 2017 - 700k - http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-01/29/c_136933793.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-01/29/c_136933793.htm Dec 2018 - 712k - http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-01/27/c_137778435.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-01/27/c_137778435.htm Dec 2019 - 1.71m - http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/01/c_138748020.htm http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/01/c_138748020.htm
    • deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
  • marknutter 7y ago
    There may not be bodies to "hide" because the mortality rate is far lower than what is being reported right now.
    • ajross 7y ago
      Then how does that square with the data from the west, which broadly confirms the CFR China reported originally? Why are Italians dying like flies to this thing the Chinese were able to hide? This "The CFR is much lower!" thing is rapidly becoming a conspiracy-level fallacy... It's probably true that there are a bunch of unmeasured cases (a reasonable study yesterday guessed at a 6x undercount) and that the CFR is currently overstated because of sampling problems with test availability. It is absolutely not possible that there were a million cases in Hubei in december. Not from this disease. Come on, folks.
      • TheFiend7 7y ago
        How does a disease that's close to 3x more contagious than the flu stop at 80k people in the densely populated cities of China? The current numbers are the ones that don't add up. Even John Hopkins estimates up to 500k cases in the US at the moment.
        • infinity0 7y ago
          Everybody knows the real number of cases is greater than the confirmed number of cases, everywhere, regardless of what country is reporting the numbers.
          • zabana 7y ago
            how would you know that ? Can you provide sources to backup this claim ? I'm interested to know.
            • spookthesunset 7y ago
              Nobody knows. Anybody that cites numbers is pulling them from a very biased sample. With the exception of a few countries, most of the testing is done on a very self-selected set of people. Those with symptoms who were ill enough to get tested and willing deal with a with a 14 day quarantine if they turned up positive. Even counties with good, pervasive testing can’t test for how many people already had it and are carrying antibodies. We are flying very blind here. Treat all numbers with a huge grain of salt.
            • naasking 7y ago
              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk
            • infinity0 7y ago
              It's by definition. If you can see 3 ducks in your house, that means there are 3 or more ducks in your house including the ones you didn't see.