> To flip it some. They say even if you survive, you may have lasting lung scarring. What if that preceded the covid? That doesn't make sense. Covid follows th

> To flip it some. They say even if you survive, you may have lasting lung scarring. What if that preceded the covid? That doesn't make sense. Covid follows the same exponential curve in all countries. If the US has a bunch of latent infections, but no huge surge in pneumonia, then that would imply there is something special about Americans that keep them from developing the worst symptoms, or something special about American old people that, despite contact with the young silent carriers, they do not develop the disease. There is no reason to believe either of those are true. They say we are a week or so behind Italy. Italy is experiencing hospital overruns. If the week-behind estimate (based on actual numbers) is overly conservative, then we would have expected to see hospital overruns in the United States from old people with pneumonia. However, we don't have that. Thus, if the week-behind estimate is overly conservative, we are certainly not at the same point as Italy or ahead of Italy, so we can say that we are anywhere from 1 week to 1 day behind Italy which is still a pretty good bound.