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This was the UK government position till a few days ago. Then they ran the numbers again and changed their mind, because even with all mitigation measures in pl
by grey-area 7y ago
This was the UK government position till a few days ago. Then they ran the numbers again and changed their mind, because even with all mitigation measures in place they estimated around 250k deaths with this approach.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...
The UK is now heading towards a more comprehensive shutdown and I suspect will resemble France and Spain soon - the method referred to in this paper as suppression.
This will be really damaging to the economy though and probably lead to a global depression if it is done everywhere. I'm honestly not sure which is worse, because a global depression will lead to a lot of deaths as well.