4 ms·

> I suspect the true numbers are about 10x-50x the reported confirmed cases I came to similar conclusion just looking at the openly available numbers: https://

> I suspect the true numbers are about 10x-50x the reported confirmed cases I came to similar conclusion just looking at the openly available numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries If you compare the number of serious cases to the number of total cases for different countries you'll get a 10x difference. Norway tests more thoroughly then the other countries, so it has a huge number of active cases. But from those only ~2% serious. There may be different reasons for such a discrepancy but I tend to agree with your conclusion that we have a lot of asymptomatic cases around, higher then estimated R0 and lower then estimated fatality.

jonplackett 7y ago
I made a simple site to graph the daily increase figures. It only shows infections and deaths but from that you can see very different ratios for different countries. (http://coronanalytics.com http://coronanalytics.com if you’re interested.)
- underlines 7y ago
  do you respect the time delay when calculating Case Fatality Rate? https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203 https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203
  - jonplackett 7y ago
    I’m just using the data straight from the John Hopkins institute. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
- travisr 7y ago
  You might try sorting the countries in your select input. They appear to be in some random order and I almost gave up looking for the country I was interested in.
  - jonplackett 7y ago
    This is a good shout. I’m just using them in the order the John Hopkins institute put them. A sort would be useful!
  - nickm12 7y ago
    Came back from the link to leave the same comment. It's impossible to use that selector.
shadowprofile77 7y ago
Sincerely curious, how do you square this with the CFR in Italy at this time? That the initial impact to primarily elderly people and a low count of cases compared to a much larger undiagnosed quantity (still mostly undiagnosed cases) are creating a high death rate statistic? Or do you think some other factors are at work there?

jonplackett 7y ago

I made a simple site to graph the daily increase figures. It only shows infections and deaths but from that you can see very different ratios for different countries. (http://coronanalytics.com http://coronanalytics.com if you’re interested.)

underlines 7y ago
do you respect the time delay when calculating Case Fatality Rate? https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203 https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203
- jonplackett 7y ago
  I’m just using the data straight from the John Hopkins institute. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
travisr 7y ago
You might try sorting the countries in your select input. They appear to be in some random order and I almost gave up looking for the country I was interested in.
- jonplackett 7y ago
  This is a good shout. I’m just using them in the order the John Hopkins institute put them. A sort would be useful!
- nickm12 7y ago
  Came back from the link to leave the same comment. It's impossible to use that selector.

shadowprofile77 7y ago

Sincerely curious, how do you square this with the CFR in Italy at this time? That the initial impact to primarily elderly people and a low count of cases compared to a much larger undiagnosed quantity (still mostly undiagnosed cases) are creating a high death rate statistic? Or do you think some other factors are at work there?