They would also likely have been right in 2007, if it weren't for the CDS disaster. Same as LTCM in the 90s. Same with every crash -- they're right until some

They would also likely have been right in 2007, if it weren't for the CDS disaster. Same as LTCM in the 90s. Same with every crash -- they're right until something their models don't correctly model have a massive, outsized effect on things. The swings, and combined with high leverage positions, can wipe out firms.