3 ms·

That doesn't add up, if it wasn't worse than seasonal influenza, then Italys hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed.

by j-pb 7y ago

easytiger 7y ago
Italy did everything wrong. They basically turned hospitals into covid19 infection parties.
- j-pb 7y ago
  Italys transmission rate is exactly the same exponential curve as everywhere else, chinas hospitals were overwhelmed, spanish hospitals are being overwhelmed, and its currently starting in the netherlands and germany. All year round is basically influenza infection party everywhere yet it doesn't overwhelm our medical systems.
- bsaul 7y ago
  do you have sources for that ? i'm extremely interested in understanding why italy seems to be suffering that much compared to other countries. If it's just a matter of being the first, or if it's also something specific to them.
  - jaclaz 7y ago
    As a side note - and JFYI - Italy's situation is very nuanced, as you can see on this map (divided by region): http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38d4138b1 http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... In the North (and particularly in Lombardy) the situation is dramatic, in the center and in the south it is not (yet) that bad. Basically the lock-down (started on national level on the 10 th of March) seemingly - and for the moment - managed to work to reduce the spread of the infection in other regions. The previous lock-down (limited to some cities/provinces of the north) was only a couple days before and evidently too late to be effective.
bsaul 7y ago
a regular flu epidemic does between 10k to 20k over a span of two months in france alone. that's more than the total number of casualties of the covid-19 so far.My feeling so far is the problem is that most covid-19 emergencies can actually be cured if you've got a breathing machine, which requires special equipment not available at the moment. I'd say the virus isn't more dangerous than the flu, it's just requiring a very specific set of equipment which we didn't need as much previously. of course that will all depend on what the number evolves to over time.
nnlsoccer 7y ago
However, now hospitals have to contend with both the flu AND COVID-19
bart_spoon 7y ago
Seasonal flu already puts quite a strain on most hospital systems every year. If the rate of severe flu infection were doubled, I think a lot of health care systems would be pushed to the limit. And Covid-19 is worse than the flu, if not in terms of severity (although that is up for debate), it is in terms of contagiousness, as there is no one in the population with resistance from prior exposure, no vaccines, etc. So it is plausible that Italy (and other countries) problems are a result of a double whammy of flu and Covid19 as it is due to the severity of Covid19 itself.

That doesn't add up, if it wasn't worse than seasonal influenza, then Italys hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed.

by j-pb 7y ago

That doesn't add up, if it wasn't worse than seasonal influenza, then Italys hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed.

easytiger 7y ago

Italy did everything wrong. They basically turned hospitals into covid19 infection parties.

j-pb 7y ago
Italys transmission rate is exactly the same exponential curve as everywhere else, chinas hospitals were overwhelmed, spanish hospitals are being overwhelmed, and its currently starting in the netherlands and germany. All year round is basically influenza infection party everywhere yet it doesn't overwhelm our medical systems.
bsaul 7y ago
do you have sources for that ? i'm extremely interested in understanding why italy seems to be suffering that much compared to other countries. If it's just a matter of being the first, or if it's also something specific to them.
- jaclaz 7y ago
  As a side note - and JFYI - Italy's situation is very nuanced, as you can see on this map (divided by region): http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38d4138b1 http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... In the North (and particularly in Lombardy) the situation is dramatic, in the center and in the south it is not (yet) that bad. Basically the lock-down (started on national level on the 10 th of March) seemingly - and for the moment - managed to work to reduce the spread of the infection in other regions. The previous lock-down (limited to some cities/provinces of the north) was only a couple days before and evidently too late to be effective.

bsaul 7y ago

a regular flu epidemic does between 10k to 20k over a span of two months in france alone. that's more than the total number of casualties of the covid-19 so far.My feeling so far is the problem is that most covid-19 emergencies can actually be cured if you've got a breathing machine, which requires special equipment not available at the moment. I'd say the virus isn't more dangerous than the flu, it's just requiring a very specific set of equipment which we didn't need as much previously. of course that will all depend on what the number evolves to over time.

nnlsoccer 7y ago

However, now hospitals have to contend with both the flu AND COVID-19

bart_spoon 7y ago

Seasonal flu already puts quite a strain on most hospital systems every year. If the rate of severe flu infection were doubled, I think a lot of health care systems would be pushed to the limit. And Covid-19 is worse than the flu, if not in terms of severity (although that is up for debate), it is in terms of contagiousness, as there is no one in the population with resistance from prior exposure, no vaccines, etc. So it is plausible that Italy (and other countries) problems are a result of a double whammy of flu and Covid19 as it is due to the severity of Covid19 itself.