5 ms·

Mean incubation period is 5.6 days (range 1-14). So while possible, it’s highly unlikely you got it 1 day after infection.

• lend000 7y ago
  "Mean" means nothing in the context of probability distributions. It's possible I picked it up elsewhere, and less likely that I have something else with these unique symptoms (I've never a had fever without nasal congestion or gastrointestinal symptoms before). However, I think it makes sense I would be at the lower incubation period range due to the high level of contact with said suspect and the fact that I'm an otherwise healthy young adult, which as I understand it can lead to the immune system reacting faster.
  • nardi 7y ago
    > "Mean" means nothing in the context of probability distributions. Just wanted to boost this. With a range of 1–14 days, it's possible for close to 50% of infections to only incubate for ~1 day, and still have a mean of 5.6 days for incubation. Without knowledge of the distribution, the mean means nothing.
    • nardi 7y ago
      Just realized I understated this. It's actually possible for 64.6% of infections to only incubate for 1 day and get a mean of 5.6 days, if the other 35.4% of infections incubate for 14 days (i.e. an extremely bimodal distribution at 1 and 14 days).
• robocat 7y ago
  “We estimated that fewer than 2.5% of infected persons will show symptoms within 2.2 days (CI, 1.8 to 2.9 days) of exposure, and symptom onset will occur within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) for 97.5% of infected persons.” From https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period...