4 ms·

Everything is just a few percent here and there, and everybody shifts the blame saying we should be cutting XYZ instead of ABC. Efforts should be made to reduc

by fiblye 7y ago

Everything is just a few percent here and there, and everybody shifts the blame saying we should be cutting XYZ instead of ABC. Efforts should be made to reduce all sources of emissions.

jariel 7y ago
"Everything is just a few percent here and there, and everybody shifts the blame saying we should be cutting XYZ instead of ABC.." Wow - no, totally not. The value derived from some kinds of emissions and resulting costs for changing them is infinitely differentiable from others. For example, changing our electricity grid over to a more renewable resource, piece by piece, will maybe be a little bit more expensive, but it won't be disruptive. 'Stopping all flights' because airplanes emit CO2 could be devastating to the world economy, in addition to a massive reduction in the quality of life of people everywhere. The factory that produces medical drugs needs some kind of Co2 emissions - probably worth it. The one producing plastic bouncy balls for pets - probably not. 'The Market' has a lot of asymmetries, but it also contains a lot of intelligence, which is why it's always reasonable to be skeptical of arbitrary, system-wide controls. Using this crisis for a 'massive experiment in what to turn online next as the basis for CO2' is excessively totalitarian, because we wouldn't really know why, how, what we are doing, and the resulting social pain would be great. If there were a rational, clean path forward and 'good timing' for the introduction of specific measures, then yes, use the opportunity. But I don't see any of that.
- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  massive reduction in the quality of life of people everywhere General messaures of wellbeing and life satisfaction in the West haven't shifted over the last forty years despite a massive increase in air travel.
  - lbeltrame 7y ago
    The point GP was trying to make, if I understood it correctly, is that large policy changes have social costs you need to factor in even if you're going to do them anyway. If a government doesn't keep that in mind it may bite them back somehow (see the beginning - as opposed to the follow-up - of the "gilets jaunes" movement in France).
    - jariel 7y ago
      " is that large policy changes have social costs " The 'large policy changes' will have completely varying consequences across the economic spectrum, for good and bad, which is the general problem with centralized planning. So if the government 'shut down all co2 emitting factories' it might have small consequences here, and terrible consequences over there. But if the government institutes a 'carbon tax' that makes your 'pet toys' and 'medicine' 10% more expensive, then given the inelasticity in demand and surpluses derived from medicine, people will continue to buy it at the same rate, and possibly buy fewer 'pet toys'. If travel rose by 20%, then maybe we'd see less leisure, fewer business trips, but the 'important trips' would still happen.
  - jariel 7y ago
    Those measures are fuzzy at best but besides the point. That we are 'happier because we can travel, but sadder because we have Facebook' is another can of worms entirely. But this 'no improvement in wellbeing' argument is mostly undermined by the fact that given the choice, almost 0 people chose to 'live like 50 years ago'. Everyone today can do that easily. They can go back to not having dishwashers, not wearing seatbelts, smoking a pack a day, black and white TV if they want to, but for some reason, they mostly chose modern convenience. But the real issue is the fact that economic activity is diverse, and heavy-handed centralized attempts to intervene will have crazy consequences. If there are 'obvious' ways to use a crises for 'obvious good' then sure, but I don't see any such thing.
    - tonyedgecombe 7y ago
      We already have heavy handed centralized attempts to intervene, they are what has got us in this mess in the first place. It just happens that they came from big business.
      - jariel 7y ago
        No, that's not at all true and not fair to say. There are no businesses that can dictate all of the terms of the market.

by fiblye 7y ago

Everything is just a few percent here and there, and everybody shifts the blame saying we should be cutting XYZ instead of ABC. Efforts should be made to reduce all sources of emissions.

jariel 7y ago

"Everything is just a few percent here and there, and everybody shifts the blame saying we should be cutting XYZ instead of ABC.." Wow - no, totally not. The value derived from some kinds of emissions and resulting costs for changing them is infinitely differentiable from others. For example, changing our electricity grid over to a more renewable resource, piece by piece, will maybe be a little bit more expensive, but it won't be disruptive. 'Stopping all flights' because airplanes emit CO2 could be devastating to the world economy, in addition to a massive reduction in the quality of life of people everywhere. The factory that produces medical drugs needs some kind of Co2 emissions - probably worth it. The one producing plastic bouncy balls for pets - probably not. 'The Market' has a lot of asymmetries, but it also contains a lot of intelligence, which is why it's always reasonable to be skeptical of arbitrary, system-wide controls. Using this crisis for a 'massive experiment in what to turn online next as the basis for CO2' is excessively totalitarian, because we wouldn't really know why, how, what we are doing, and the resulting social pain would be great. If there were a rational, clean path forward and 'good timing' for the introduction of specific measures, then yes, use the opportunity. But I don't see any of that.

tonyedgecombe 7y ago
massive reduction in the quality of life of people everywhere General messaures of wellbeing and life satisfaction in the West haven't shifted over the last forty years despite a massive increase in air travel.
- lbeltrame 7y ago
  The point GP was trying to make, if I understood it correctly, is that large policy changes have social costs you need to factor in even if you're going to do them anyway. If a government doesn't keep that in mind it may bite them back somehow (see the beginning - as opposed to the follow-up - of the "gilets jaunes" movement in France).
  - jariel 7y ago
    " is that large policy changes have social costs " The 'large policy changes' will have completely varying consequences across the economic spectrum, for good and bad, which is the general problem with centralized planning. So if the government 'shut down all co2 emitting factories' it might have small consequences here, and terrible consequences over there. But if the government institutes a 'carbon tax' that makes your 'pet toys' and 'medicine' 10% more expensive, then given the inelasticity in demand and surpluses derived from medicine, people will continue to buy it at the same rate, and possibly buy fewer 'pet toys'. If travel rose by 20%, then maybe we'd see less leisure, fewer business trips, but the 'important trips' would still happen.
- jariel 7y ago
  Those measures are fuzzy at best but besides the point. That we are 'happier because we can travel, but sadder because we have Facebook' is another can of worms entirely. But this 'no improvement in wellbeing' argument is mostly undermined by the fact that given the choice, almost 0 people chose to 'live like 50 years ago'. Everyone today can do that easily. They can go back to not having dishwashers, not wearing seatbelts, smoking a pack a day, black and white TV if they want to, but for some reason, they mostly chose modern convenience. But the real issue is the fact that economic activity is diverse, and heavy-handed centralized attempts to intervene will have crazy consequences. If there are 'obvious' ways to use a crises for 'obvious good' then sure, but I don't see any such thing.
  - tonyedgecombe 7y ago
    We already have heavy handed centralized attempts to intervene, they are what has got us in this mess in the first place. It just happens that they came from big business.
    - jariel 7y ago
      No, that's not at all true and not fair to say. There are no businesses that can dictate all of the terms of the market.