8 ms·

This probably should have gone on the thread about flattening the curve not being enough. But. Where is the core team of 12 people plus 108 collaborators that

by hyperion2010 7y ago

This probably should have gone on the thread about flattening the curve not being enough. But. Where is the core team of 12 people plus 108 collaborators that should have been assembled a month and a half ago to figure out how to retune US manufacturing to start producing stripped down ICU beds and the supplies needed to keep them operational? This game is easy. The parameters are well understood. You could assign the basic problem to a middle schooler. Getting realistic numbers? Well it doesn't matter, no matter what those number are, every single fully functional ICU bed that can be brought online in the next 2 weeks is probably going to save 2 lives. According to some of the other economic analysis that has been posted here today suggesting that we let people die, that is 18 million dollars in human lives. How many fully stocked ICU beds can you make for 18 million dollars? There's your startup idea for the next 2 weeks. Not ignoring the fact that you need a team to staff it and work it, but guess what, you ALSO have two weeks to train as many people as you can to run these things. WHERE IS THIS TEAM?

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
3fe9a03ccd14ca5 7y ago
> Where is the core team of 12 people plus 108 collaborators that should have been assembled a month and a half ago You don’t understand where things were at a month ago. I had a fight with my wife at Costco because she thought I was wasting money and overreacting when I purchased the 50 lb bag of rice (among other items). She understands now. We all do. But a month ago people were in absolute denial about the inevitable and it was impossible then to convince them otherwise.
tylerl 7y ago
> WHERE IS THIS TEAM? Now they're all sheltering in place in their homes. It's amazing how big a difference you can make in the world if you can just get started... a month ago.
- jvanderbot 7y ago
  Exactly. Still, with prioritization, this team can be assembled, isolated, and funded without limit, even now during shutdowns. But there's too many such leverage points to ... leverage. So, we use the same response Europe had to the Plague.
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    The bubonic plague killed 50% of infected and the septicemic plague killed 100%. This one is trending towards 0.6%-0.1% so you can see why the response may not be the same given the 3 orders of magnitude lower estimated fatality rate. Yeah it’s serious but don’t kid yourself, it’s not the plague. For instance I don’t think the UK would be contemplating just giving it to everyone young enough if it were to kill half to all of them. I don’t recall Thanos getting elected prime minister.
jacknews 7y ago
calling Elon
- sephamorr 7y ago
  Elon has been consistently playing down the risk from coronavirus/ https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/13/21179291/elon-musk-coronavirus-tesla-memo-car-accident-deaths-comparison https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/13/21179291/elon-musk-corona...
  - neotek 7y ago
    Who would have thought that a loudmouthed self promoter with an overinflated sense of his own intelligence and a history of making thoroughly unrealistic and unscientific predictions would get this one wrong too?
    - ghostpepper 7y ago
      > a history of making thoroughly unrealistic and unscientific predictions I thought you were going to say "a history of making thoroughly unrealistic goals come to fruition" because that seems more accurate.
      - ForHackernews 7y ago
        How're those Mars flights treating you? https://nypost.com/2018/03/11/elon-musk-flights-to-mars-will-start-in-2019/ https://nypost.com/2018/03/11/elon-musk-flights-to-mars-will... Good place to hide out from COVID-19, I'd reckon.
      - neotek 7y ago
        Musk has missed just about every goal he's ever set by a wide margin and has only managed to pull through because hordes of taxpayers and investors continue to line up to dump money into his black hole projects on the back of his self-aggrandising.
        7y ago
iancmceachern 7y ago
Here is one. I have the experience, network and know how to make any medical device one would want. What do you want to make? Let's do it
- themantra514 7y ago
  Hello from Montreal, Canada! Your expertise would be much appreciated. Please feel free to reach out via opensourceventilator@gmail.com
rhino369 7y ago
The beds aren't really anything special. "Beds" is code for capacity in an ICU ward with ICU level medical equipment and doctors/nurses trained to provide that level of care. Any hospital bed + a ventilator is probably good enough. Sounds like the government and hospitals are putting in orders wherever they can. But I imagine hospitals aren't going to buy slapped together untested products unless its really really bad.
- adrianN 7y ago
  It's going to be really really bad in a few weeks.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- koheripbal 7y ago
  There aren't nearly enough ventilators.
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    This isn’t a ventilator.
ThomPete 7y ago
As far as i understand a lot of people are working on this.
TaylorAlexander 7y ago
HI! I’m a robotics engineer with mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, Linux and embedded programming skills, and I have 8 3D printers at home including two Prusa printers, a high resolution resin printer, and a large format printer. I’d really like to help! But there’s no central organization for this. I think we have to quickly organize ourselves! If anyone has any ideas please add them here in these hacker news comments, AND/OR I’ve just created a thread on my website which we can use for focused discussion: https://reboot.love/t/coronavirus-thread/281 https://reboot.love/t/coronavirus-thread/281 I’m working from home and have some freedom to delay my normal work and assist with this. What should I do? Is it ventilators that are most obviously needed? We could 3D print the air pumps, but where do we get a vast supply of cheap motors? Or in another case hospitals just needed replacement parts for existing ventilators. How do we get in touch with hospitals and determine their needs? People have also suggested multiple people can be connected to one ventilator with some success. Could we make an adapter to help with that? How would we determine requirements?
- koheripbal 7y ago
  The bottleneck with distributing new ventilators isn't physically producing them - it is getting them tested and approved by the FDA. So the use-case here is people putting their loved ones on these ventilators at home because the hospitals are full (which is entirely possible). Ideally, we should be working with existing ventilator manufacturers in the US to have them increase their current output.
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
    If that's the case we need a whole DIY course of treatment, not just the machine itself. Playing doctor with only the tools and none of the rest is going to be a losing game. :(
    - arcticbull 7y ago
      1. There’s no treatment other than supportive care. 2. Ventilators aren’t dumb iron lung machines. Current ventilators are large, complex and very much specialized machines which require special training to operate. Once you get to the point you need a ventilator the ventilator is the least of your problems.
tyfon 7y ago
In Norway at least it isn't the beds themselves that are the issue it's the infrastructure needed for this in the hospital rooms of which the most important seems to be oxygen outlets. I'm not sure how safe it is to hook up gas tanks directly to DIY respirators. Not that we are in a shortage yet, there are only 50 people hospitalised but it's expected to rise.
- koheripbal 7y ago
  You cannot wait until the shortage hits to build more - obviously. It will come very quickly.
visarga 7y ago
> every single fully functional ICU bed that can be brought online in the next 2 weeks is probably going to save 2 lives. Yet nurses and doctors probably won't be able to keep up even with all the beds and respirators.
stordoff 7y ago
Minor detail, but why 12 people plus 108 collaborators - is there some significance to these numbers I'm unaware of?
LoSboccacc 7y ago
> There's your startup idea for the next 2 weeks. all medical startups are legal heavy, there's not much space for gung-ho attitudes. imagine the shitstorm that would ensue if someone dies on a makeshift ventilator. and they will, because being ventilated gives no guarantee of survival.
themantra514 7y ago
Hello from Montreal, Canada! My employers are industrial equipment dealers who remember WW2, and the pivoting of industrial production that it took to win the war. We can still make a major difference if we are able to manufacture open source ventilators en masse. What am I doing about it? First I'm reaching out to the engineering departments of two major academic institutions to find local engineering leads that can help in conceiving or identifying sound open source plans for a ventilator. The goal being to find consensus and validate a ventilator design that we can mass produce as fast as possible in North America. In parallel we would reach out to our provincial government to pitch this initiative. For this to be a success we need local as well as national government support. Not delegating the work to government but rather getting their legal support. My employers know some local manufacturers, some in the USA, and in Mexico; all of them capable of manufacturing various parts as well as assembling on site. The knowledge, equipment, and production facilities are scattered. We just have to identify who can do what part in their shop as per plans that have been reviewed and approved. Ultimately we could use this production model for all essential equipment to fight Covid-19. About patents. No patents were required during WW2 if governments had to produce equipment that would win the war. The Covid-19 pandemic might be worst than war so to win it patents should not be an impediment. There are multiple online forums where a low-cost or open source ventilators are being discussed. I'm not seeking to add noise to this very important endeavour but I do feel the need to at least contribute towards a coordinated, structured effort. I'm actively searching for open source ventilator initiatives all over the world to identify the most promising ones: I need your help in getting this done, the world needs your help, so please reach out via opensourceventilator@gmail.com along with your suggestions and advice. Last but not least, I just registered opensourceventilator.org and will gladly donate it if needed to centralize efforts in this fight. Thank you for taking the time to read this, good night, and have a pleasant tomorrow. PS: Elon, how ya doing?
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- saurik 7y ago
  re: patents I agree. I wish the system did as well. :( https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21184308/coronavirus-italy-medical-company-threatens-sue-3d-print-valves-treatments https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21184308/coronavirus-ital... > Medical company threatens to sue volunteers that 3D-printed valves for life-saving coronavirus treatments > The valve typically costs about $11,000 — the volunteers made them for about $1

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

3fe9a03ccd14ca5 7y ago

> Where is the core team of 12 people plus 108 collaborators that should have been assembled a month and a half ago You don’t understand where things were at a month ago. I had a fight with my wife at Costco because she thought I was wasting money and overreacting when I purchased the 50 lb bag of rice (among other items). She understands now. We all do. But a month ago people were in absolute denial about the inevitable and it was impossible then to convince them otherwise.

tylerl 7y ago

> WHERE IS THIS TEAM? Now they're all sheltering in place in their homes. It's amazing how big a difference you can make in the world if you can just get started... a month ago.

jvanderbot 7y ago
Exactly. Still, with prioritization, this team can be assembled, isolated, and funded without limit, even now during shutdowns. But there's too many such leverage points to ... leverage. So, we use the same response Europe had to the Plague.
- arcticbull 7y ago
  The bubonic plague killed 50% of infected and the septicemic plague killed 100%. This one is trending towards 0.6%-0.1% so you can see why the response may not be the same given the 3 orders of magnitude lower estimated fatality rate. Yeah it’s serious but don’t kid yourself, it’s not the plague. For instance I don’t think the UK would be contemplating just giving it to everyone young enough if it were to kill half to all of them. I don’t recall Thanos getting elected prime minister.

jacknews 7y ago

calling Elon

sephamorr 7y ago
Elon has been consistently playing down the risk from coronavirus/ https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/13/21179291/elon-musk-coronavirus-tesla-memo-car-accident-deaths-comparison https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/13/21179291/elon-musk-corona...
- neotek 7y ago
  Who would have thought that a loudmouthed self promoter with an overinflated sense of his own intelligence and a history of making thoroughly unrealistic and unscientific predictions would get this one wrong too?
  - ghostpepper 7y ago
    > a history of making thoroughly unrealistic and unscientific predictions I thought you were going to say "a history of making thoroughly unrealistic goals come to fruition" because that seems more accurate.
    - ForHackernews 7y ago
      How're those Mars flights treating you? https://nypost.com/2018/03/11/elon-musk-flights-to-mars-will-start-in-2019/ https://nypost.com/2018/03/11/elon-musk-flights-to-mars-will... Good place to hide out from COVID-19, I'd reckon.
    - neotek 7y ago
      Musk has missed just about every goal he's ever set by a wide margin and has only managed to pull through because hordes of taxpayers and investors continue to line up to dump money into his black hole projects on the back of his self-aggrandising.
      - 7y ago

iancmceachern 7y ago

Here is one. I have the experience, network and know how to make any medical device one would want. What do you want to make? Let's do it

themantra514 7y ago
Hello from Montreal, Canada! Your expertise would be much appreciated. Please feel free to reach out via opensourceventilator@gmail.com

rhino369 7y ago

The beds aren't really anything special. "Beds" is code for capacity in an ICU ward with ICU level medical equipment and doctors/nurses trained to provide that level of care. Any hospital bed + a ventilator is probably good enough. Sounds like the government and hospitals are putting in orders wherever they can. But I imagine hospitals aren't going to buy slapped together untested products unless its really really bad.

adrianN 7y ago
It's going to be really really bad in a few weeks.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
koheripbal 7y ago
There aren't nearly enough ventilators.
- arcticbull 7y ago
  This isn’t a ventilator.

ThomPete 7y ago

As far as i understand a lot of people are working on this.

TaylorAlexander 7y ago

HI! I’m a robotics engineer with mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, Linux and embedded programming skills, and I have 8 3D printers at home including two Prusa printers, a high resolution resin printer, and a large format printer. I’d really like to help! But there’s no central organization for this. I think we have to quickly organize ourselves! If anyone has any ideas please add them here in these hacker news comments, AND/OR I’ve just created a thread on my website which we can use for focused discussion: https://reboot.love/t/coronavirus-thread/281 https://reboot.love/t/coronavirus-thread/281 I’m working from home and have some freedom to delay my normal work and assist with this. What should I do? Is it ventilators that are most obviously needed? We could 3D print the air pumps, but where do we get a vast supply of cheap motors? Or in another case hospitals just needed replacement parts for existing ventilators. How do we get in touch with hospitals and determine their needs? People have also suggested multiple people can be connected to one ventilator with some success. Could we make an adapter to help with that? How would we determine requirements?

koheripbal 7y ago
The bottleneck with distributing new ventilators isn't physically producing them - it is getting them tested and approved by the FDA. So the use-case here is people putting their loved ones on these ventilators at home because the hospitals are full (which is entirely possible). Ideally, we should be working with existing ventilator manufacturers in the US to have them increase their current output.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
  If that's the case we need a whole DIY course of treatment, not just the machine itself. Playing doctor with only the tools and none of the rest is going to be a losing game. :(
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    1. There’s no treatment other than supportive care. 2. Ventilators aren’t dumb iron lung machines. Current ventilators are large, complex and very much specialized machines which require special training to operate. Once you get to the point you need a ventilator the ventilator is the least of your problems.

tyfon 7y ago

In Norway at least it isn't the beds themselves that are the issue it's the infrastructure needed for this in the hospital rooms of which the most important seems to be oxygen outlets. I'm not sure how safe it is to hook up gas tanks directly to DIY respirators. Not that we are in a shortage yet, there are only 50 people hospitalised but it's expected to rise.

koheripbal 7y ago
You cannot wait until the shortage hits to build more - obviously. It will come very quickly.

visarga 7y ago

> every single fully functional ICU bed that can be brought online in the next 2 weeks is probably going to save 2 lives. Yet nurses and doctors probably won't be able to keep up even with all the beds and respirators.

stordoff 7y ago

Minor detail, but why 12 people plus 108 collaborators - is there some significance to these numbers I'm unaware of?

LoSboccacc 7y ago

> There's your startup idea for the next 2 weeks. all medical startups are legal heavy, there's not much space for gung-ho attitudes. imagine the shitstorm that would ensue if someone dies on a makeshift ventilator. and they will, because being ventilated gives no guarantee of survival.

themantra514 7y ago

Hello from Montreal, Canada! My employers are industrial equipment dealers who remember WW2, and the pivoting of industrial production that it took to win the war. We can still make a major difference if we are able to manufacture open source ventilators en masse. What am I doing about it? First I'm reaching out to the engineering departments of two major academic institutions to find local engineering leads that can help in conceiving or identifying sound open source plans for a ventilator. The goal being to find consensus and validate a ventilator design that we can mass produce as fast as possible in North America. In parallel we would reach out to our provincial government to pitch this initiative. For this to be a success we need local as well as national government support. Not delegating the work to government but rather getting their legal support. My employers know some local manufacturers, some in the USA, and in Mexico; all of them capable of manufacturing various parts as well as assembling on site. The knowledge, equipment, and production facilities are scattered. We just have to identify who can do what part in their shop as per plans that have been reviewed and approved. Ultimately we could use this production model for all essential equipment to fight Covid-19. About patents. No patents were required during WW2 if governments had to produce equipment that would win the war. The Covid-19 pandemic might be worst than war so to win it patents should not be an impediment. There are multiple online forums where a low-cost or open source ventilators are being discussed. I'm not seeking to add noise to this very important endeavour but I do feel the need to at least contribute towards a coordinated, structured effort. I'm actively searching for open source ventilator initiatives all over the world to identify the most promising ones: I need your help in getting this done, the world needs your help, so please reach out via opensourceventilator@gmail.com along with your suggestions and advice. Last but not least, I just registered opensourceventilator.org and will gladly donate it if needed to centralize efforts in this fight. Thank you for taking the time to read this, good night, and have a pleasant tomorrow. PS: Elon, how ya doing?

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
saurik 7y ago
re: patents I agree. I wish the system did as well. :( https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21184308/coronavirus-italy-medical-company-threatens-sue-3d-print-valves-treatments https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21184308/coronavirus-ital... > Medical company threatens to sue volunteers that 3D-printed valves for life-saving coronavirus treatments > The valve typically costs about $11,000 — the volunteers made them for about $1