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I’m not going to argue on the statistics, because I don’t quite get it. You seem to be implying that maybe there are a load of us that had it already (and mayb

by aidos 7y ago

I’m not going to argue on the statistics, because I don’t quite get it. You seem to be implying that maybe there are a load of us that had it already (and maybe, hopefully, that’s the case). But if so, doesn’t it seem weird that we’ve basically watched its progress as it’s spread around the world? Why would most people get it and be asymptotic followed by a series of unlucky people that are getting it now and falling ill? Though again, maybe I’m misunderstanding.

arcticbull 7y ago
I'm kinda spitballing here too. > You seem to be implying that maybe there are a load of us that had it already (and maybe, hopefully, that’s the case). Yep, and that as a result our mortality projections from CFR are quite overstated. > But if so, doesn’t it seem weird that we’ve basically watched its progress as it’s spread around the world? I wouldn't be shocked to see a retrospective on this in the future tell us that we've been seeing the spread of availability of the test rather than the disease. > Why would most people get it and be asymptotic followed by a series of unlucky people that are getting it now and falling ill? Symptoms are basically the same as the flu for most people (Korea has a 0% CFR under 29, and 0.1% under 49), and for older folks, well, they're older, and basically anything can kill them. Some studies showed a fatality rate of 10% for the H1N1 flu -- and so far we're seeing a CFR of 15% for old folks in Korea. It's possible the fatalities we'd been seeing were written off as just that.
- aidos 7y ago
  > I wouldn't be shocked to see a retrospective on this in the future tell us that we've been seeing the spread of availability of the test rather than the disease. Ok, I could buy into that (and I really hope that's the case - though I'm still doubtful). The main thing I didn't realise was that the tests didn't show who had had it. Thanks for taking the time to work your point through with me.
dchichkov 7y ago
"The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed." — William Gibson

by aidos 7y ago

arcticbull 7y ago

I'm kinda spitballing here too. > You seem to be implying that maybe there are a load of us that had it already (and maybe, hopefully, that’s the case). Yep, and that as a result our mortality projections from CFR are quite overstated. > But if so, doesn’t it seem weird that we’ve basically watched its progress as it’s spread around the world? I wouldn't be shocked to see a retrospective on this in the future tell us that we've been seeing the spread of availability of the test rather than the disease. > Why would most people get it and be asymptotic followed by a series of unlucky people that are getting it now and falling ill? Symptoms are basically the same as the flu for most people (Korea has a 0% CFR under 29, and 0.1% under 49), and for older folks, well, they're older, and basically anything can kill them. Some studies showed a fatality rate of 10% for the H1N1 flu -- and so far we're seeing a CFR of 15% for old folks in Korea. It's possible the fatalities we'd been seeing were written off as just that.

aidos 7y ago
> I wouldn't be shocked to see a retrospective on this in the future tell us that we've been seeing the spread of availability of the test rather than the disease. Ok, I could buy into that (and I really hope that's the case - though I'm still doubtful). The main thing I didn't realise was that the tests didn't show who had had it. Thanks for taking the time to work your point through with me.

dchichkov 7y ago

"The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed." — William Gibson