4 ms·
Mathematically this makes no sense. If we all had it already it wouldn’t have an R0 of 2-3. And, if you model the infection rate, even with it being highly expo
by apinstein 7y ago
Mathematically this makes no sense. If we all had it already it wouldn’t have an R0 of 2-3. And, if you model the infection rate, even with it being highly exponential, it still takes many many months to spread everywhere because of a) the ~4 day delay from infection of a person to their infectious-ness b) it being a phenomena that must be seeded in each local community and c) applying the prior to the exponential function.
I won’t bother re-creating the epidemiological studies as professionals have much better simulations than I could offer.
I will urge you to read up on the models before assuming this thing is “already everywhere” which also implies it won’t grow exponentially.