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Thanks. Although the author is not an expert and he kind of lost me when he used normal distribution to model the curve, it still looks like the right ballpark.

Thanks. Although the author is not an expert and he kind of lost me when he used normal distribution to model the curve, it still looks like the right ballpark. That's a lot.

gus_massa 7y ago
He could have replaced the normal distribution by any other roundly curve and the result doesn't change too much. For example with the SRI model you don't get a Gaussian https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/SIR_model https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/SIR_model , but the graphic is close enough. It's less peaky than the Gaussian so it should make things easier, but the reduction probably will be a small factor, something between 1 and 2.