3 ms·
So far number of cases has been multiplying by 10 every ~16 days. Incubation period is 4-14 days. I.e. when you institute quarantine, cases will still multiply
by dmos62 7y ago
So far number of cases has been multiplying by 10 every ~16 days. Incubation period is 4-14 days. I.e. when you institute quarantine, cases will still multiply like crazy for another 4-14 days. In other words, you have to do it "too early". If you do it when you're nearing ICU capacity, you are waaaay too late.
- tjoff 7y agoDon't think anyone is waiting for the ICU to be at capacity.
- mnl 7y agoThis. I expect duplication every three days where I'm writing this until the effects of lockdown measures show up clearly in around two weeks time. Think about something akin to some sort of nuclear reactor with control rods up you've just started to insert.
- alkonaut 7y ago25 to 35% growth rates seem like the norm withiut (or nearly withiut) any restrictions and nearly no public awareness. That a full lockdown quickly stops the spread is obvious, but it will be interesting to see how well the UK/Swedish model works with. strict social distancing but without lickdowns or even shutdowns of e.g restaurants.
- dmos62 7y agoOur math might need some correction. The statistics I was citing is daily contamination rate of 15-25%, and multiplication by 10 every 16 days (which comes out to a daily contamination rate of 15%). A daily rate of 25% gives you multiplication by 10 every 10.5 days.