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Uk tactic looks very sensible to me. They will institute a lockdown long before that. But they recognize a lockdown for a prolonged time is very challenging in

by tjoff 7y ago

Uk tactic looks very sensible to me. They will institute a lockdown long before that. But they recognize a lockdown for a prolonged time is very challenging in itself and there aren't many good reasons to be doing it too early.

im3w1l 7y ago
Maybe they want a flat curve in the sense of a rectangle. You know rapidly rise until just what the system can take and then keep it there..
- jschwartzi 7y ago
  You can't really do that. If you think of this in terms of the control over the virus being a Proportion-Integral-Derivative type system, then given how long it takes to gather more information about the current infection level in the populace you're either going to overshoot after the corner(too little pressure applied) or undershoot(too much pressure applied) after the corner. You can't apply perfect control to this kind of system such that the corner is perfectly square. Especially where our knowledge is imperfect and subject to a lot of latency, we have to accept that we have very little actual control over how quickly the curve speeds or slows. Thus the bell-shaped curves.
bananabreakfast 7y ago
That's... completely insane. There "aren't many reasons to be doing it too early"? Stopping, or at least slowing the spread of a worldwide pandemic isn't a good reason? Preventing 3% of your population from dying over the next year isn't a good reason? Waiting until the problem obviously seems like a real problem is exactly what crushed cultures under epidemics in the past.
- codeulike 7y ago
  The UK strategy is based on the idea that the pandemic cannot be stopped, but can be slowed down and directed away from the most vulnerable. So there are certain assumptions there that people can agree or disagree with. But its not 'completely insane'. And yes South Korea and China seem to have stopped the pandemic in their countries, and have done an impressive job at it, but its early days and not at all clear how sustainable their approach is, or whether that approach would work everywhere.
- tjoff 7y ago
  No, it is not. It is too late for stopping it and you can barely delay it either. You delay a few days or maybe 1-2 weeks if stringent but it won't be as effective when you desperately need it to be. Likely more will die if you start too early.
- tartoran 7y ago
  Yeah, the pragmatic mindset might as well calculate the savings on pensions from deceased elderly. I personally find this unacceptable. More should have been done earlier and it didn’t happen. We’ll see how this affects the next elections though..
dforrestwilson 7y ago
The UK backed away from this insanity and will be implementing social distancing. Thank god.
- codeulike 7y ago
  They were always going to eventually, and they said so.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- slap 7y ago
  Everything is still open in the UK
- LandR 7y ago
  Was out tonight going to supermarket, the social distancing isn't enforced. I still saw half full pubs. Bare in mind it's Monday, if nothing changes expect full pubs and business as usual coma Friday. Nothing has changed.
dmos62 7y ago
So far number of cases has been multiplying by 10 every ~16 days. Incubation period is 4-14 days. I.e. when you institute quarantine, cases will still multiply like crazy for another 4-14 days. In other words, you have to do it "too early". If you do it when you're nearing ICU capacity, you are waaaay too late.
- tjoff 7y ago
  Don't think anyone is waiting for the ICU to be at capacity.
- mnl 7y ago
  This. I expect duplication every three days where I'm writing this until the effects of lockdown measures show up clearly in around two weeks time. Think about something akin to some sort of nuclear reactor with control rods up you've just started to insert.
- alkonaut 7y ago
  25 to 35% growth rates seem like the norm withiut (or nearly withiut) any restrictions and nearly no public awareness. That a full lockdown quickly stops the spread is obvious, but it will be interesting to see how well the UK/Swedish model works with. strict social distancing but without lickdowns or even shutdowns of e.g restaurants.
  - dmos62 7y ago
    Our math might need some correction. The statistics I was citing is daily contamination rate of 15-25%, and multiplication by 10 every 16 days (which comes out to a daily contamination rate of 15%). A daily rate of 25% gives you multiplication by 10 every 10.5 days.

by tjoff 7y ago

im3w1l 7y ago

Maybe they want a flat curve in the sense of a rectangle. You know rapidly rise until just what the system can take and then keep it there..

jschwartzi 7y ago
You can't really do that. If you think of this in terms of the control over the virus being a Proportion-Integral-Derivative type system, then given how long it takes to gather more information about the current infection level in the populace you're either going to overshoot after the corner(too little pressure applied) or undershoot(too much pressure applied) after the corner. You can't apply perfect control to this kind of system such that the corner is perfectly square. Especially where our knowledge is imperfect and subject to a lot of latency, we have to accept that we have very little actual control over how quickly the curve speeds or slows. Thus the bell-shaped curves.

bananabreakfast 7y ago

That's... completely insane. There "aren't many reasons to be doing it too early"? Stopping, or at least slowing the spread of a worldwide pandemic isn't a good reason? Preventing 3% of your population from dying over the next year isn't a good reason? Waiting until the problem obviously seems like a real problem is exactly what crushed cultures under epidemics in the past.

codeulike 7y ago
The UK strategy is based on the idea that the pandemic cannot be stopped, but can be slowed down and directed away from the most vulnerable. So there are certain assumptions there that people can agree or disagree with. But its not 'completely insane'. And yes South Korea and China seem to have stopped the pandemic in their countries, and have done an impressive job at it, but its early days and not at all clear how sustainable their approach is, or whether that approach would work everywhere.
tjoff 7y ago
No, it is not. It is too late for stopping it and you can barely delay it either. You delay a few days or maybe 1-2 weeks if stringent but it won't be as effective when you desperately need it to be. Likely more will die if you start too early.
tartoran 7y ago
Yeah, the pragmatic mindset might as well calculate the savings on pensions from deceased elderly. I personally find this unacceptable. More should have been done earlier and it didn’t happen. We’ll see how this affects the next elections though..

dforrestwilson 7y ago

The UK backed away from this insanity and will be implementing social distancing. Thank god.

codeulike 7y ago
They were always going to eventually, and they said so.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
slap 7y ago
Everything is still open in the UK
LandR 7y ago
Was out tonight going to supermarket, the social distancing isn't enforced. I still saw half full pubs. Bare in mind it's Monday, if nothing changes expect full pubs and business as usual coma Friday. Nothing has changed.

dmos62 7y ago

So far number of cases has been multiplying by 10 every ~16 days. Incubation period is 4-14 days. I.e. when you institute quarantine, cases will still multiply like crazy for another 4-14 days. In other words, you have to do it "too early". If you do it when you're nearing ICU capacity, you are waaaay too late.

tjoff 7y ago
Don't think anyone is waiting for the ICU to be at capacity.
mnl 7y ago
This. I expect duplication every three days where I'm writing this until the effects of lockdown measures show up clearly in around two weeks time. Think about something akin to some sort of nuclear reactor with control rods up you've just started to insert.
alkonaut 7y ago
25 to 35% growth rates seem like the norm withiut (or nearly withiut) any restrictions and nearly no public awareness. That a full lockdown quickly stops the spread is obvious, but it will be interesting to see how well the UK/Swedish model works with. strict social distancing but without lickdowns or even shutdowns of e.g restaurants.
- dmos62 7y ago
  Our math might need some correction. The statistics I was citing is daily contamination rate of 15-25%, and multiplication by 10 every 16 days (which comes out to a daily contamination rate of 15%). A daily rate of 25% gives you multiplication by 10 every 10.5 days.