4 ms·

I'm not sure why you're downvoted. That is exactly the right approach. Implement serious social distancing measures to reduce R0 below 1, get local outbreak u

I'm not sure why you're downvoted. That is exactly the right approach. Implement serious social distancing measures to reduce R0 below 1, get local outbreak under control, and then work on keeping it contained, increasing measures when necessary. Once it's more established which countries are effectively controlling the virus, travel could be more open with those countries, and more restricted with those that still have active outbreaks. (Which doesn't necessarily mean cutting off completely, but perhaps only essential travel and cargo, or unrestricted but 14 day isolation on arrival.)

nostrademons 7y ago
Interestingly, that comment started out as +3 and is down to -2 now. I think it may be a good harbinger of the public's willingness to endure repeated, long-term changes to their behavior. The way I see this going, we're going to get lockdowns in most countries within the next week or so. After 6 weeks or so, new cases will be negligible, and we'll declare victory and pick up our lives. The virus will silently spread from a few undetected cases during the summer, but then take off again around October, when we get a second wave. Assuming it hasn't mutated to become significantly less deadly (pretty likely - see sibling threads), that will be the real killer, because instead of starting from 1 index case in 1 city it'll be seeded from tens of thousands of sleeper cases across the globe. Public opinion won't support a second lockdown then - people will just be left to die with their families.
- rapnie 7y ago
  > Interestingly, that comment started out as +3 and is down to -2 now. Is there somewhere to check that score, or is it a higher karma feature?
  - nostrademons 7y ago
    If you wrote the comment you can always see the score (0 now, FWIW). At least I've always been able to; hidden comment scores arrived a while after I'd already amassed a pretty high karma level.
- tempestn 7y ago
  I would like to think that we would keep expanding testing infrastructure during the reprieve, and so wouldn't be caught off guard. For the most part the people running large scale public health policy are smart and well informed, so this risk won't be unknown.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]

nostrademons 7y ago

Interestingly, that comment started out as +3 and is down to -2 now. I think it may be a good harbinger of the public's willingness to endure repeated, long-term changes to their behavior. The way I see this going, we're going to get lockdowns in most countries within the next week or so. After 6 weeks or so, new cases will be negligible, and we'll declare victory and pick up our lives. The virus will silently spread from a few undetected cases during the summer, but then take off again around October, when we get a second wave. Assuming it hasn't mutated to become significantly less deadly (pretty likely - see sibling threads), that will be the real killer, because instead of starting from 1 index case in 1 city it'll be seeded from tens of thousands of sleeper cases across the globe. Public opinion won't support a second lockdown then - people will just be left to die with their families.

rapnie 7y ago
> Interestingly, that comment started out as +3 and is down to -2 now. Is there somewhere to check that score, or is it a higher karma feature?
- nostrademons 7y ago
  If you wrote the comment you can always see the score (0 now, FWIW). At least I've always been able to; hidden comment scores arrived a while after I'd already amassed a pretty high karma level.
tempestn 7y ago
I would like to think that we would keep expanding testing infrastructure during the reprieve, and so wouldn't be caught off guard. For the most part the people running large scale public health policy are smart and well informed, so this risk won't be unknown.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]